Early bird can work if given transparency. Example: IF you order this HASLAB in the first 'X' days, we will throw in this spiffy classic Wasp in a variant costume exclusive to the HASLAB. Wasp will be released later, but not in this variation. If you want Giant Man AND you want this exclusive Wasp costume, back early. No special number to hit, FOMO kicks in early.
See? Early bird special, NOT locked behind tiers, figure will come out later, but you can get an exclusive if you want it. For this particular HASLAB, this should've been a no brainer (considering how many costumes Janet has had). As a collector, I would've done it for the exclusive figure (I backed on Day 1 regardless, but it would've been a nice bonus).
This is how they should have played the EoV. Offered Robbie in civilian to buy early. Offer GR when Production goal was hit. Either way when it funded you either had one or both, your choice. The remainder of the figures is still BS that they were locked up, but it may have hit the fund goal if there wasn't so much crap in the beginning, making the locked tiers a mute point.
Mattel did it. The Eternia Playset offered up King Grayskull if you backed in the first 7 days.. It fully fund on Day 6, the people who backed early got the exclusive figure. By day 7 they had blown through the production and hit the second goal.
We have 45 days to make a decision on how to pay for it, what's the issue backing early?
Early bird can work if given transparency. Example: IF you order this HASLAB in the first 'X' days, we will throw in this spiffy classic Wasp in a variant costume exclusive to the HASLAB. Wasp will be released later, but not in this variation. If you want Giant Man AND you want this exclusive Wasp costume, back early. No special number to hit, FOMO kicks in early.
See? Early bird special, NOT locked behind tiers, figure will come out later, but you can get an exclusive if you want it. For this particular HASLAB, this should've been a no brainer (considering how many costumes Janet has had). As a collector, I would've done it for the exclusive figure (I backed on Day 1 regardless, but it would've been a nice bonus).
This is how they should have played the EoV. Offered Robbie in civilian to buy early. Offer GR when Production goal was hit. Either way when it funded you either had one or both, your choice. The remainder of the figures is still BS that they were locked up, but it may have hit the fund goal if there wasn't so much crap in the beginning, making the locked tiers a mute point.
Mattel did it. The Eternia Playset offered up King Grayskull if you backed in the first 7 days.. It fully fund on Day 6, the people who backed early got the exclusive figure. By day 7 they had blown through the production and hit the second goal.
We have 45 days to make a decision on how to pay for it, what's the issue backing early?
Eternia did it and then as soon as the early bird window passed, orders fell off a cliff. Fans didn’t want to pay the same price to get less than what other fans were getting. And that’s the problem with an early bird. We are petty. You show us a toy and take it away, we have a tantrum. The only way an early bird works is the way the Hiss did it, where everyone gets it regardless of when they order if it funds by a certain date. but THAT only works if it fully funds by that date. Otherwise you get the Engine of Vengence. Eternia actually tried to add it back and say if they hit x numbers then everyone got it, but the damage was done at that point.
In my opinion, early birds are a bad idea that only create resentment in the people who didn’t get in in time.
Okay. Had to dig for Skystriker and Rancor numbers to get a feel. They may or may not give the best indicator as every campaign is different but I thought I'd see what we could learn.
Rancor got around 2800 on its final day! And failed. But if we got 2800, we'd fund.
The Skystriker was about as far from funding on its final day as Giant-Man! And it wound up with nearly 16k! So here's what to watch for: it funded at around 3PM EST. If we do that, we could be on a trajectory to unlock all tiers.
Now... Why these may not be reflective:
- Skystriker had value added mid-campaign
- Both campaigns likely had interested backers withholding pledges for reasons beyond just wanting to wait until the end. Rancor backers withheld support in hopes of getting more value, got a few tier changes but nothing they wanted, really. Skystriker had backers withholding support because they were backing the Rancor and switched when Rancor failed just before Skystriker's final day.
- So the good day each of these had on their final day was probably partly fueled by people withholding during the campaign who wanted more value (and both campaigns added SOME value in response). And also each campaign had people not backing one to back the other so it seems the Rancor failing turbocharged the Skystriker.
So... It's possible but hard to say which past case gives us the best roadmap. Rancor and Skystriker both had unusually good last days. Galactus generally did as well.
I keep adjusting assumptions and it keeps leading to estimates in one of two places:
Between 8500 and 9000.
OR
Around 15000.
None of my guesses seem to fall inbetween.
It looks to me like it's a coin toss between stalling out under 9000 or hitting every stretch goal. Either of those actually have a lot of plausible scenarios that reflect prior campaigns.
And I'm guessing we'll know which one by around 3 Eastern?
I'm probably committing to something too specific based on a bunch of models instead of just looking at aggregate data, which would soften the errors of assumptions.
But I think, particularly looking at failed campaigns, there's actually a decent case that if we fail, we don't get too close. And if we succeed, it turns into a frenzy.
I think there are a lot of people currently not backing because they don't really want to spend the $200 and this isn't something they're passionate about (this version, this interpretation) but if it gets made, they'll feel like they don't want to be left out and that the price isn't unreasonable if it's getting made anyway.
I keep adjusting assumptions and it keeps leading to estimates in one of two places:
Between 8500 and 9000.
OR
Around 15000.
None of my guesses seem to fall inbetween.
Yea it's pretty impossible to guess what's going to happen today...gonna be a wild ride. I don't even care about the character that much, but the figure looks great, will be strikingly unique in displays, and it'll suck if we don't get it. 😫
The real oppressors are the corporations. They sell goods--made by the lowest bidder--for the maximum price while paying their employees the lowest possible salaries. Corporations don't care about the product or the consumer or the employee. Bootlicking for corporate America won't make your life any better, but it will make everyone else's worse. They all worship a god called Greed and nothing can sate his hunger.Read it in his voice
It's wild to me that this hasn't funded by now, but I'm optimistic we'll get there. Last day let's gooo!
Giant-Man:
7,705 / 10,000 (+512) 77.05% of funding goal with 17h left.
At least the numbers are going up into the final hours. Now the question is will it be enough?
I'm in Australia. There is only ONE place to back this legitimately here, and it's not through Hasbro Pulse.
At $599AUD (admittedly without having to worry about postage), that's roughly $380USD.
For context, I backed Galactus, through the same same channel, at roughly $799AUD when the exchange rate meant that was well over $500USD.
That said, the Engine of Vengeance was being offered at an eye-watering $899AUD.
There's a lot of things I can do with that money instead of getting another massive box to squeeze into the wardrobe alongside Galactus.
Ok, so I thought, screw it, why not add one more gigantic dust magnet to the rest of my collection in storage?
But when I tried to buy in, the link above went dead. So, regardless of my to-ing and fro-ing over it, it looks like I'm officially out.
The real oppressors are the corporations. They sell goods--made by the lowest bidder--for the maximum price while paying their employees the lowest possible salaries. Corporations don't care about the product or the consumer or the employee. Bootlicking for corporate America won't make your life any better, but it will make everyone else's worse. They all worship a god called Greed and nothing can sate his hunger.
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Giant-Man is such a great looking huge figure available for a reasonable price. As others have said, he will really make the Avengers display a centerpiece. Really hope this funds!
- As someone that is self employed this post isn’t meant to stir up controversy
but I never understood the arguments about corporations making a profit. They are supposed to and so what if they do?
do corporations not employ people so that they can buy stuff and live?
it’s like people take out their anger on the wrong people but they never revolt against their real oppressors that tax and enslave them.
I’ve been watching too many toy collector reviews. That argument never made sense to me. I mean, yeah you kinda should care that a business exists otherwise there would be high unemployment and crime. Just seems so juvenile to blame a “billion dollar corporations”
your government is a trillion dollar ponzi scheme
Sorry, can't let this one go.
The government provides a wealth of benefits for everyone and particular benefits for those in need. Social Security, subsidized housing, Medicare, food stamps, food inspection, environmental regulation, defense, transportation, education, and about a million other things.
In a nutshell, civilizations cost money, go figure. Don’t want civilization? There’s living off the grid, but don’t expect any Haslabs there – hard to deliver when you have no address.
In my ideal version of civilization Giant Man gets funded, today…
Giant-Man has added 100 backers (7,805) since my daily update 3 hours ago, with 14 hours left.
Definitely not good enough to fund. At that pace it won't pass 8,400 backers. Let's hope that pace picks up (as it should) in the coming hours.
Wow
I'm not surprised. This is part of the process of showing disapproval of their insane price hikes.
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