@tsi Yeah I'm not trying to argue that Mahomes isn't great.  He most definitely is, and this year proved it more than any other IMO.  He had his true "Brady Moment" season where he was given almost nothing to work with and still made it to the Super Bowl.  I'm just saying he's not the main reason the Chiefs won that game.  If the Ravens hadn't made so many ridiculously amateur errors they should have won by 7-10.  The Chiefs' offense couldn't muster a point in the second half, it was up to the Ravens' offense to win the game and they blew it.

I expect Mahomes to be wearing his third ring in less than two weeks though.

That's fair. I think KC's defense can rightfully claim credit for that game. I still disagree about the Ravens. They had the goalline fumble, but other than that, I wouldn't say there were a ton of mistakes. They looked flat to me. Questioning a QB's ability to perform in the playoffs is very ESPN First Take-y, but I'm beginning to ask those questions about Lamar. Once again, he was a different guy in January. In six games, he's 2-4 with 6 TDs and 6 INTs. One of his two wins came against an overachieving Houston team with an over/under of 5.5 wins.

PC, I don't think it's going to be a blowout at all. SF's roster is better. Maybe significantly so. I just decided that if I'm going to look like an idiot for picking the wrong team, it's going to be the one quarterbacked by arguably the best to ever do it.

I'm not sure how much you all participate in the online discourse about Purdy, but Sunday was another rollercoaster. He once again provided evidence for people who think he's great and people who think he sucks. The funniest moment though was folks giving Purdy credit for the helmet catch. He's been extremely lucky through two games so far. I have to think that luck runs out eventually. Then again, as PC said, Eli Manning.

The truth is - greatness often requires some lucky breaks.   Tom Brady wasn't on the road to GOAT until his fourth Super Bowl run.   That first Super Bowl he was slightly above average with a great defense and a couple of lucky breaks...   Purdy has only been a starter for a season and a half and already has more post-season wins than Dak and Lamarr combined.     Sure there's some lucky bounces,  sure he's got great teammates,  of course he isn't as physically gifted as Mahomes or Allen or some others.    But he does run that offense with those weapons well.

And yeah that 55 yarder to Aiyuk was a lucky bounce and an incredible play by BA... but the ref threw a flag for pass interference on that, and sure they picked it up after the catch,  but I'm betting if he didn't catch it they enforce that penalty, so a good play by the QB either way, I think.   

None of that matters.   The truth is Mahomes may actually be the best QB ever -  and that may be enough.   But if the Niners D can muster up the stuff they brought against Dallas and Philadelphia and others -  Patty could struggle to put points on the board.   And while the Chiefs defense has been solid they are top 5 against the pass but bottom 10 against the run.   The 49ers have a diverse and effective running game that could stress the Chiefs defense and tip time of possession in the niners favor.   And the pass rush loses some sting without Omenihu in there.   

There are paths to victory for San Francisco here, so I'll keep the faith.     And if they lose to Mahomes in the midst of one of the greatest team/coach/QB runs of all time, then that's sometimes how it goes.

As far as Purdy goes, Kyle Shanahan made Matt Ryan an MVP.

He sure did.    Here's the thing -  it DOESN'T MATTER if Purdy would be great on any team... he doesn't have to be.   He's on THIS team and he's been great for them.   His teammates clearly love him - they are all riding for him in every interview -  and he's good enough to keep this team contending for a title.    

The discourse on Purdy is ridiculous and borderline toxic.   The good news is that San Francisco doesn't have to even worry about how much to pay him for at least another year and frankly they don't even have to negotiate after next season -  they can let his full 4 year contract play out and then franchise tag him if need be.   Usually a long term deal that massages the cap is better than the franchise tag... but it depends on how you want it done and what Purdy has shown in the meantime.

If the Niners win the Super Bowl this year and then Purdy has another great season next season -  San Francisco will pay him.   Bring a Lombardi back to the bay and it will be worth what he costs.    The truth is that by the time Purdy becomes expensive Trent Williams will retire and free up a bunch of cap space -  of course they'll need to figure out how they replace one the best left tackles in history -  but at least it may mean they don't have to cut a bunch of contributors to accommodate the QB salary.   

And if instead Purdy turns in to Jimmy G 2.0 like a bunch of people seem to want him to then they can cut bait and start over.      

The difference between the Matt Ryan MVP season and Brock Purdy is that Shanahan left Ryan immediately after to be a head coach.    Purdy and Shanahan could ostensibly be partnered for a long ride if they remain successful.    If Purdy stays great in the Shanahan system then the two of them can keep winning games in SF for years.   And it won't matter at all if he would be any good anywhere else.   

I am genuinely intrigued by the persistence of the Vegas line having the 49ers at 2.5 point favorites in this Super Bowl.   More than 75 percent of the pundits and experts I've seen are picking the Chiefs to win.   The narrative and analysis suggests the Chiefs of the regular season were a mirage and that they finally woke up in the playoffs and that the 49ers defense is in shambles and that the Chiefs will be able to do to the Niners offense what Baltimore did.     

All of that is convincing.   Looking at everything it's hard for me to be optimistic about the 49ers chances.    So why does Vegas seem to favor them?    How can a team that the vast majority of experts and commentators on the sport are picking to win still be an underdog?     

It's perplexing.   Obviously the betting lines aren't gospel and can certainly be wrong as a predictor... they are set usually to influence the most even betting possible.   Does Vegas just believe that Niners fans are delusional enough to bet big on their team regardless and are keeping the line where it is to even that out with bets on KC?

I'm obviously hopeful my team can pull it out and finally win a chip in this century -  but the realist in me looks at all the evidence and sees it's not an ideal match up for San Francisco.

Sorry, PC. I've felt the sting of two Super Bowl defeats and there's almost nothing worse. I imagine a loss where you had the lead with two minutes left and then in OT would be even more agonizing.

As far as the game goes, it's hard for me to rank it. The first three quarters sucked. Like, they were among the most boring football I've ever watched. The 4th quarter and OT made up for it quite a bit, but not enough to say that this was one of the best Super Bowls of my lifetime.

My takeaways from the game itself:

- There were an insane seven fumbles between the two teams. I can't remember ever seeing that many fumbles in a football game.

- Fred Warner is insanely good.

- Do the Niners win the game if Greenlaw doesn't blow out his Achilles standing on the sidelines? Probably, right? They were basically one play away from winning the game on any of KC's 2H drives.

- What is Deebo Samuel now? He had three catches for 33 yards and three carries for eight yards. When SF needed a play, I assumed it was coming from Aiyuk. Was Deebo too banged up to function as a true #1 receiver this year? Is he past his prime? Does the defense try to remove him from the game?

- Today, Purdy was better than I give him credit for. Still, he couldn't come up with either of the third-down conversions that would've won SF the game.

- As the game went on, I became more and more confident in my Chiefs pick. The Niners never put the game away. After the Mahomes interception, they had the ball on the KC 45 and walked away with nothing.

- I picked against the 49ers in part because I think Kyle Shanahan is too conservative. I never expected him to be the more aggressive of the two coaches. Aside from not calling timeout during KC's drive at the end of the first half, I can't fault any of his decisions. At this point, he and John Lynch are snakebit. A well-coached, incredibly talented roster and they still can't get over the hump.

- As a final point, it's worth naming the reason Shanahan and Lynch are snakebit. His name is Patrick Mahomes and he's the best to ever do it.

What a frustrating end to a great season.  I hated all three of the last games.  I'm glad the SB was at least tight but the whole game I was just waiting for Mahomes to take it away.  It was a very Patriots-era Brady feeling, like no matter what you just expected him to win the game at any moment.  The only thing that made the game tolerable was that it didn't happen until the very last play.

Purdy did well with what he had but a little more scrambling ability could have tipped the game for them.  I know he had something like 60+ yards rushing in the last game but it seemed like every time he was pressured in this one he just threw it up off his back foot.  He was safe with it but there were way too many 3-and-outs.  At one point I told my buddy that the Chiefs would be in the lead by the time the 49ers got their next first down and sure enough, I was right.  Very frustrating.

Now the long wait begins.

An interesting read on the OT strategy from both teams. Tl;dr: SF didn't have one and KC was prepared to go for two to win the game.

I forgot to shout out Chris Jones, McDuffie, and Sneed in my first post. All of whom were incredible last night. Jones delivered pressures on at least two would-be touchdowns.

I think the decision to take the ball in OT was largely made because the defense had just been on the field of a long Chiefs drive and he thought KC would have an easier time scoring on a defense that hadn't caught their breath.   I understood it - and there's a certain logic that if you score and they score then you get the ball first in the "last score wins" scenario...   but as you say -  even if SF scores a touchdown,  KC likely goes all in and goes for 2 to either win or lose the game on that play.    

The worst part of this is that it was all the little things that if just one goes differently the Niners have a much better chance to win.      McCaffrey's fumble on the opening drive was a killer.   The Niners offense was humming.  The Chiefs looked surprised at how SF was moving the ball down the field on them.    McCaffrey lost 4 fumbles in the last 3 seasons going into this game.   If he doesn't fumble there the Niners score on that opening drive and set a different tone.       But even with that,  they got fumble luck on the other end to balance that one out,  so whatever.

Greenlaw rupturing his achilles when running onto the field from the sideline was devastating.   They exploited his back up on multiple occasions the rest of the way.

But maybe the play that hurt the most was the turnover on the punt.    The 49ers defense held up again and forced a punt and then an unlucky bounce had the ball ricochet of the heel of one of SF's blockers and McCloud couldn't cover it.     So it ended up the same as being a 45 yard completion on 4th down.    The defense who thought it could relax had to go right back on the field and Mahomes skewered them for a touchdown on the first play.

If the 49ers cover that punt -  maybe they go down and score a touchdown,  like they did when they got the ball back - and they are up 10 (assuming Moody only misses one of the two extra points) instead of 3.    I think maybe if that's the case they hold on to win.   There's obviously no way to know as KC makes different choices down 10 than they do down 3... but the odds go way up without that one single play.

It's a bummer.   Super Bowls are hard to get to - and obviously, even harder to win.   But there's no guarantee San Francisco gets back again next year or the year after or anytime soon.   So it hurts to be this close and miss.   Just this one win could have sustained me for quite awhile.

I remember after the Giants won three world series titles in 5 years how good that felt and honestly still feels good even though the last win was almost 10 years ago now.     30 years is a long time to bask in past glory though,  so the Niners need one in the modern era.    This felt like their best chance in a long time and still it slips out of their grasp.   

Such is the fate of a sports fan, I guess.

NFL Free Agency is officially upon us.    Always interesting to see which teams scramble and which teams don't

49ers not making big moves... they let Armstead become a free agent so they're going to need to find another interior D linemen that can occupy some of that space.    They did sign a couple of edge rushers in Leonard Floyd and Yetur Gross-Matos.     I hope they can find some kind of upgrade for the right side of their offensive line because it cost them a Super Bowl

On a personal note I'm interested to see what happens for my nephew.   It's his first bite at the free agent apple and he's coming off his most productive season as a pro.     The Jets want him back to keep using him as their 5th DB swiss army knife the way the did the back half of last season,  but he doesn't want that.   He wants to go somewhere that will let him compete to start.   But, the safety market is a little crazy right now.   Lots of teams cut their veteran safeties to save money so there are lots of quality safeties on the market and it's also a position teams clearly aren't valuing very highly, so teams are trying to save money there.    He's got to try and thread the needle to find a team that will look at him as at least a potential starter but as a better value than the veteran starters that are out there and available.     I saw him this past weekend at his sister's wedding and I was like... I don't know man,  first and foremost you just have to make sure you have a job -  but he's confident and believes the right spot will open up for him.    

My son is shaking his head with his Panthers.    Tearing down their top 5 defense and hoping they can build an offense that will be functional around Bryce Young.    He has his doubts, but he's such a fan he still can't help but be a little optimistic.   He's already talking himself into Diontae Johnson as a WR upgrade and liking the O-line rebuild.   LOL

I think Dre Greenlaw's freak injury cost the 49ers the Super Bowl. That, and Patrick Mahomes. I'm honestly glad my team sucks right now because beating Mahomes is going to prove nearly impossible for the next decade. This was arguably the worst Chiefs team of the Mahomes era and they still won.

Gross-Matos was underwhelming in Carolina, but I understand SF has such an expensive roster that they have to cross their fingers in places.

I don't understand what the Steelers are doing with Russell Wilson. I think they would've been better off going for a Jacoby Brissett-type. Wilson looks done.

I'm sure your nephew will find something. There are a lot of cards still to be shuffled in free agency and the draft.

The Panthers have arguably been the most incompetent team in American sports since David Tepper took over. QB roulette, moving up to draft a 5'10 outlier, and the Burns trade debacle. I'm glad I don't follow the league as closely as I used to because Chicago drafting Caleb Williams with Carolina's pick would've killed me a few years ago. They need to let the stink of the last few seasons leave the facility before they can build anything real. Luckily with a new defense and Bryce Young still at the helm, they aren't going to compete for much more than the #1 draft pick this year. Unfortunately for the Panthers, that pick will come in another sorry year for QB talent.

Man... excited for football to be back - even if it's only pre-season.

Was fun to see my nephew in clips yesterday of Jets camp tipping an Aaron Rodgers pass that was intercepted by a teammate.    There's a lot of hype about how good the Jets D is supposed to be this season, so I'm hoping that means good things for him.

Nervous for this year since all the talk is about how tough the competition in the NFC is going to be and then everyone predicting the 49ers will go 14-3.    It feels a little better when everyone doesn't see you coming than to be the prohibitive favorite.     

I've got fingers crossed that both Green Bay and Detroit fall back to earth just a little bit this season from all the hype they are getting.    Almost every super bowl prediction I see though has Green Bay or Dallas getting there.    It's a loooong season.   But I'm stoked it's back.

Really interested to see if the Caleb Williams hype is real -  there are a LOT of Bears fans in my life and half of them are the sort of delusional ALL IN - with that cellar to penthouse thinking.    And then there's the other half who have just been beaten down by 40 years of not good enough and nothing working at QB who are preparing for disaster and disappointment.

Other than my Niners,  I'm hoping for more success in Houston.   I really like Demeco Ryans and he's got some former SF vets down there anchoring his defense.   I'd like to see them continue last year's success.    I worry about Miami.   I love Mike McDonald but having to give Tua all that money -  I just don't know.

Time to start getting excited.   The first real weekend of college football is here -  though watching Georgia Tech smash Florida State's inflated hopes on "Week 0" last weekend was pretty great.    This season will certainly be different with so much conference realignment, with the 12 team playoff ...

watching Colorado barely hang on to beat North Dakota State was pretty funny.   Deion has created a lot of hype, but is all talk, no walk?

And then 6 days away from the first NFL game.   Was glad to have the Aiyuk nonsense finally put to bed.   All so dumb though.   He ended up signing the same 4 year extension that has been on the table for the last month - so much unnecessary stupidness.     Now with that done I really hope they give Trent his guarantee,  get him in the building and we can move forward.

I'll be there for that Monday night game -  I get to watch my nephew play against my favorite team, so will be rooting for him to play well and for the Niners offense to go off on the other side of the field, away from him so he doesn't take the blame  😀

Anyway - football is back!

Some guesses:

NFC -

1. Detroit
2. SF
3. Philly
4. Atlanta
5. GB
6. LA Rams
7. Seattle

AFC -

1. Baltimore
2. Houston
3. NYJ
4. KC
5. Buffalo
6. Jacksonville
7. LA Chargers

Championship games: KC over Houston; Detroit over GB

Super Bowl: KC over Detroit