So it looks like both Sirianni and McCarthy will get another year to show their work...
While I get what you're saying TSI about the Eagles - I don't think it's all personnel. The offensive scheme for the Eagles was one of the most basic and predictable in the entire NFL. They didn't get creative with playcalling, they didn't change things up, and they didn't even lean into what was working. While the personnel on defense was bad - the scheme was also bad. And demoting your DC and promoting another one mid-year didn't fix anything.
The Eagles strengths last season were their offensive and defensive lines. Stacked. But the O-line is old - like old, old. Lane Johnson got hurt and clearly wasn't 100% down the stretch. If Kelce retires and they have to find a new center there is no way the line play doesn't go down significantly. And that D-line - losing Hargrave was big - but their best guys also got older Cox is 36, Brandon Graham is 35, even Reddick is 30. And the young guys they brought in to help didn't pull their weight - especially my namesake, Jordan Davis. It's hard to imagine the line getting significantly better with another year added on. But they do need to upgrade their line backing core and their secondary because all of that was busted.
So sure it's not all on the coaching - but the coaching was bad. Not changing, or at least adding to, schemes to turn things around is bad coaching. Demoting your DC after a couple of losses - and looking as bad as ever after doing it... not a great look. If Sirianni can't win without elite contributions from his coordinators then maybe he isn't the man for the top job...
Shanahan loses his coordinators every other year. Saleh who took asst OC Mike LeFleur, McDaniel, Ryans who took asst OC Bobby Slowik - and still they find ways to keep it together. So some of that dropoff for the Eagles has to fall at Sirianni's feet.
Anyway - I'm very interested to see where Harbaugh and Belichick land. It looks like the Falcons have interviewed them both.
And interesting move by Chicago bringing in Kliff Kingsbury as OC to try to help appeal to Caleb Williams who has up to know said he won't consider signing with the Bears.
I think you may have been had by fake news re: Caleb Williams. I saw a graphic floating around on Twitter about him refusing to sign for the Bears, but apparently he never said that.
At this point, I believe we can separate head coaches by 1) leadership first 2) scheme first 3) the ideal, a combo of both.
After watching Philly's vanilla offense, it's fair to say Sirianni is leadership first. I'd say a Dennis Allen and Robert Saleh are scheme first. In the perfect circumstances, I believe these coaches can win you a Super Bowl. See Mike McCarthy and Doug Pederson. What you really want, though, is a combination of both. Those coaches are few and far between. We're talking about Shanahan, McVay, Reid, Belichick, and Harbaugh.
Yeah... I guess you may be right about Caleb. I think Kingsbury could be a good OC - but he's a vibes guy so will need a more business-like head coach to run things.
Honestly, I wonder about the same thing with Mike McDaniel as a head coach in Miami... he's a fantastic designer of offense, but not sure he can take full command of a team. Watching Hard Knocks In Season was illuminating. I miss having him as my offensive coordinator, but the way his team collapsed to end this season may be partly about his leadership (and a ton of injuries).
It's looking like Belichick to Atlanta may be a real thing. Probably smart for him trying to set the all time wins record. If there's a division in football it will be easy to grab 5 divisional wins a year it's that one.
I think Harbaugh will end up in San Diego. He knows the city, having coached college there, and they have a QB he can work with. He'll figure out the rest of the roster and what not and I think he kind of wants to line up across from Andy Reid twice a year to test himself.
The Packers must be kicking themselves. They were the better team for 3.5 quarters. I think they probably win the game if their kicker hits the FG to go up 7.
I liked the Packers all season. I had a lot of faith in Love as a Rodgers replacement and he exceeded my wildest expectations. There's an argument that he's the best QB in the NFC now. That team is young and talented. Hopefully they didn't secretly miss their window this year like the Bills did in 2021/2022. (This post will look very foolish when the Bills upset the Ravens and Niners on the way to the Super Bowl.)
Curious to hear your thoughts about the Niners, PC. If I was a fan, I'd be more than a little concerned. I don't think this was just a Green Bay team on the rise. There are real vulnerabilities in that defense. And Purdy is... phew. Are the lights too bright in these games? Or that his weaknesses more apparent in the playoffs/against better opponents? He looked like the 20th-best QB in the NFL until his skill guys bailed him out on the last drive. If GB cashes in on any of the balls he threw right at them, they win.
A lot will be made of Bass's missed FG, but we know the Chiefs were going to drive down and win the game anyway. Buffalo's defense couldn't stop anything today.
I'm actually not overly concerned about the 49ers at all and I won't overreact to a close playoff game.
Purdy does have a real issue - he has small hands for a QB and clearly struggles with a wet football. He had similar issues in the game in Cleveland - also one of his statistically worst games of the year. Next Sunday is supposed to be sunny and 60 degrees in Santa Clara. So that will be better. He is obviously better when Deebo is on the field, but I'm pretty confident Deebo will be there Sunday. I expect the offense to look better next weekend - Detroit has something like the 27th ranked pass defense in the league, so I think their hill to climb is bigger than Brock's.
I think the 49ers pass rush will perform better against Detroit - the Packers gave up the fewest sacks of any team all season, so not shocking that unit did well on Saturday. And Goff is statistically the second worst QB when pressured all season. So if the Niners get home early he won't look the same. Also Goff plays demonstrably worse outside than he does indoors, so there's that for them to contend with as well. As a 49ers fan I think they bounce back and look better against the Lions than they did against Green Bay.
As for the Super Bowl ... if we get there, that could be a different story. The Ravens and Chiefs have two of the best defenses in the NFL. And Baltimore dismantled the Niners in the first meeting this year. It was the 4 interceptions that were the clear difference in the game. Really only one of those was a bad decision by Purdy and that was when he was pressing later. The other int's were tipped at the line of scrimmage or on the receiver. Not to say Baltimore doesn't get credit for them or that they don't count... but they aren't necessarily repeatable or guaranteed in a rematch. I think the Niners can come up with a game plan to compete there.
Honestly my biggest concern going forward is Shanahan's playcalling - which sounds insane - but he totally mismanaged the 2 minute drill to end the first half. Being a little more aggressive could have resulted in points there - maybe a touchdown or at least a much closer field goal - instead of a long field goal attempt that gets blocked.
And why wasn't the run game a heavier part of the plan? Purdy was struggling with accuracy with the wet ball and McCaffrey was running well - he had 17 rushing attempts in the game averaging almost 6 yards per carry. Lean on him more! Brock Purdy had over 40 attempts passing - with a couple of scrambles and a sack mixed in. Give me more balance there - in a rainy game where a runner has a footing advantage over defenders in space...sigh
But I think they rally up this week and have a better game against Detroit.
The Mahomes/Allen thing is crazy. Allen just can't get over the hump and Buffalo really does have to feel a little cursed. I am super excited to see the Chiefs-Ravens game. The Ravens are a better squad over all - but Lamar still has some things to prove as a post-season performer while the AFC Championship game is a 'been there, done that' situation for Mahomes and most of his players. Six straight conference title games for the Chiefs. Baltimore hasn't been there and that energy and pressure could be a lot. I expect it to be a really good game and for Lamar's sake I hope he can get over the hump - something Josh Allen couldn't do.
If the 49ers can advance to the Super Bowl - either way they would get a rematch against one of the only teams to beat them in a previous Super Bowl. Niners are 5-2 in the title game with losses to Baltimore in 2013 and KC in 2020; so either way they would have a chance to avenge one of their losses.... But we can cross that bridge when we get to it.
First we need to handle business against this Lions team that is feeling themselves.
I think I said pretty much this same thing earlier in the season, but - I can't offer much in the way of deep analysis like you guys but this has been one of the most entertaining seasons I can remember. Lots of new blood doing well and almost none of the dynasty total control that we've had for the past 10+ years.
The Ravens or Lions are my hopes to take the title but I'll be ok with anyone other than the Chiefs. No more Mahomes, please.
I don't mind Mahomes' dominance because it helps my argument that he's the GOAT.
Cleveland over Houston
KC over Miami
Buffalo over Pittsburgh
Dallas over GB
LA over Detroit
Tampa over Philly
.500 is about as bad as I've ever been on Wildcard weekend. I feel most bamboozled by the Cowboys. I had them in the NFC title game. And that's coming from someone who liked GB all year.
I'm taking all the favorites this weekend:
BAL over HOU
SF over GB
DET over TB
BUF over KC
I limped to 3-1 last week, putting me at 6-4 overall. I like the favorites again this weekend.
SF over DET
BAL over KC
He's an absolutely fantastic QB. Up until this year I respected him quite a bit for just doing his job at the highest level and letting his play do the talking, but this season he moved hard into the diva realm in my opinion. That press conference where he whined about the refs calling a (correct) penalty on them that wiped out the Kelce lateral TD was pretty eye-opening. I'm not saying there aren't times where the refs should be called out (the Lions got robbed against the Cowboys) but that was just a cringe-worthy baby moment.
And I predict a SF v KC Super Bowl, but I really hope I'm wrong!
The one thing that gives me some real hope for the Niners to at least make the Super Bowl again is when you look at the 49ers passing offense, they are top 5 in almost every statistical category. The Lions pass defense is 20th or worse in every one of those same categories - so there should be a real mismatch on that side of the ball.
The Lions offense is also very good - but the Niners defense is pretty decent. And like I said in a previous post - if they can get early pressure on Goff - you can get him to make some bad plays.
That AFC match up is legit though... Baltimore is the better team on paper. Defense is one of the best - if not outright the best - unit in football. But KC's defense is good too - top 5 in most categories as well. And here's the thing - this is Patty's 6th straight trip to the conference title game. Lamar has never been here. The pressure increases in these games and that could be a factor.
That said, the Super Bowl logo conspiracy theorists have said its a 49ers/Ravens super bowl all season long - so I think I have to ride with that. I think the KC/Baltimore game is close and comes down to the wire and I think the Ravens get one extra bounce their way.
A few years ago, I decided to stop picking against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. Then the Bucs destroyed KC's offensive line in the Super Bowl and I went against my own rule. Turns out, it's still a terrible idea to pick against him. The AFC's top QBs are excellent. Allen, Burrow, Herbert, and Lamar are probably the rest of the top five in the league, in some order. The problem is, as good as the rest of the AFC QBs are (and they are truly great), Mahomes is that much better.
If this KC team that limped into the playoffs wins the Super Bowl, we should all take a step back and realize 1) the Reid/Mahomes combo is the best to ever do it (I'm aware of Brady/Belichick and think this is dominance on a new level), and 2) they could rack up a truly gaudy number of Super Bowls. Imagine this Chiefs team with a real #1 receiver.
Between Detroit blowing a 17-point lead, dropping key passes, and Aiyuk's ridiculous catch, the 49ers had no business winning that game. SF has somehow made the Super Bowl after winning two games they should've lost. I'm a firm believer in the idea that every team that wins the Super Bowl has at least one near-miss in the playoffs. Maybe they had two? Kyle Shanahan has been shaky as hell in January.
PC, you should be relieved to know I'm picking the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. I'm 2-11 in the last 13.
And I predict a SF v KC Super Bowl, but I really hope I'm wrong!
Yep.
What a couple of frustrating games. The Ravens haven't looked that pathetic on offense all year and the Lions receivers came out from halftime wearing oven mitts.
@tsi I'm going to disagree with your Chiefs' Dominance theory. they should have easily lost that game. The Ravens' D shut them down completely in the second half, it was only the Ravens' offense that allowed them to win. The Ravens should have had a TD on the drive that Flowers single-handledly destroyed and then another FG at the very least on the next drive when Lamar threw into quadruple coverage in the end zone (realistically that probably would have been another TD, the Chiefs' D wasn't stopping anything). Baltimore beat themselves.
I think the Chiefs take the Super Bowl easily though, for the reasons you stated above. I'm not looking forward to it.
"Take a shot every time TS is on camera": The drinking game of every Superbowl party in America this year.
That's not a knock on TS, I'm a fan.
@tsi I'm going to disagree with your Chiefs' Dominance theory. they should have easily lost that game. The Ravens' D shut them down completely in the second half, it was only the Ravens' offense that allowed them to win. The Ravens should have had a TD on the drive that Flowers single-handledly destroyed and then another FG at the very least on the next drive when Lamar threw into quadruple coverage in the end zone (realistically that probably would have been another TD, the Chiefs' D wasn't stopping anything). Baltimore beat themselves.
I don't know. They were totally in control from the start. As you mentioned, a lot of that was KC's defense, but had the Chiefs spent money/draft capital on their receiving core instead of their secondary and defensive line, it could've very easily been their offense.
The impressive thing about Mahomes is he's been asked to do different things throughout his career. He's been the big-play guy, the aggressive passer, and now the game manager. Lamar made that error throwing into quadruple coverage, not Mahomes. The second half was disappointing, but he opened the game with a touchdown and followed it with a 9-minute TD drive against the league's best defense.
The Chiefs have made the Super Bowl in four of the last five seasons, and they have a chance to be the first team to go back-to-back since the Patriots in '03/'04. At 28 years old, Mahomes is already third in playoff wins among QBs. He's been a starter for six years and made at least the conference championship in every one.
man... I typed out a big old long post and the system errored it out... sigh.
Basically, regardless of what the Vegas line is the Chiefs have to be considered the favorite. Mahomes 4th Bowl in 6 tries is crazy. But I don't think this is going to be the blowout some of you seem to think.
I remember an 18-0 Patriots team going into a Super Bowl that the 5th seeded wild card Giants squeaked their way into. That game was supposed to be a cake walk and the culmination of a perfect season. Instead the scrappy Giants pulled out the improbable win. Greatness can be overcome - anything can happen.
The Chiefs have scored 20 or fewer points 10 times this season. Sure they are 5 and 5 in those games, but it's not like they are some crazy offensive buzz saw.
Also, the loss of Omenihu is significant for KC. He was responsible for one of the two most important defensive plays for the Chiefs on Sunday – the strip sack (the Sneed forced fumble at the goal line was more important). Without him the Chiefs pass rush is less suffocating.
It's possible Purdy gets overwhelmed by the Super Bowl environment and short circuits – but it’s possible he keeps his cool and finds open outlet guys and does what he’s done since he got the gig.
There’s no shame in losing to Mahomes who could really start to build his case that he’s the best ever. But what if Purdy is to Patty what Eli was to Brady? That can happen... we’ve seen it happen. I’m not counting my guys out.
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