Are the Rams... good? I'd much rather watch them in the playoffs than any other NFC team outside of SF, PHI, DAL, and maybe DET.

Similarly, I hope Denver and Pittsburgh drop out of the AFC playoff picture immediately.

That Rams/Ravens game was nuts.    The Niners still have both of those teams on the schedule so there are no weeks off.    Cardinals this coming Sunday which SF can't sleep on.   The Cardinals organization may not care about winning in hopes of a higher draft pick at this point, but Kyler Murray isn't interested in that at all, and can be dangerous.    The Niners are a better team and should handle their business,  but it's like the picture perfect definition of a trap game.

Best case scenario for me and my rooting interest this coming week is for the Niners to handle Arizona and for Seattle to beat Philly and Buffalo to beat Dallas.    Then they get breathing room.   It's too much to hope that the Commanders go on the road and take down the Rams.     Realistically the Rams could head into that week 17 game at 9-7 with Washington, the Saints and the Giants before then.    That would be crazy.   And it goes against every fiber of my being to hope for a Seahawks win over Philly,  but it's what's best for the Niners.   

I'm more hopeful that the Rams/Ravens game was about neither of those teams being great, than about the Rams getting back to form.   If it's more the former than the latter then the Niners may be able to cruise to the end with the 1 seed firmly in hand.   

The AFC is fascinating.    KC looks extremely vulnerable at present and looks like will have to play the first post-season road game of Mahomes' career.    The Bengals and Browns are somehow fully alive with the Bengals starting Jake Browning and the Browns fielding the ghost of Joe Flacco.    The Steelers seem like they will crater with Trubisky at the helm.   The Colts are hard to predict and Broncos are a little Jekyll and Hyde but their defense is legit.   The Texans have a shot,  but not if Stroud is held out, maybe.   Baltimore looks like they are in the driver's seat but their remaining schedule is kind of tricky -  at Jacksonville,  at SF,  and then home vs the Dolphins and Steelers.  Every one of those games is losable for them, especially if the defense plays like it did against LA.    Like I said - crazy.

Anyway...  should be an exciting final month. 

We're riding our new lord and savior Jake Browning to the Superbowl!

On a serious note, Burrow getting hurt may be a huge blessing in disguise. The Bengals play calling has been abysmal. Forcing them to find a run game and dial up something different might actually show that dropping back 40+ times a game is stupid and has made things harder than it should have been. 

The only question now is has Burrow been checking out of too many plays or were Taylor / Callahan relying too much on hero ball?

The Ravens are now the third-best team in the history of DVOA. The 49ers are sixth. Feels like an inevitability that they meet again in the Super Bowl.

Meanwhile, things are super interesting for the Bills this week. Win and they're the 2 seed, lose and they're almost definitely out of the playoffs.

Yeah...  I honestly hope I get to see a rematch of Niners/Ravens in the Super Bowl.   We can exorcise the demons of both the regular season beat down we just got and the Super Bowl that we should have won but didn't.   I think there's some reason to believe the Niners would deliver a more competitive game in a rematch than they did in the recent meeting.

This week's game is kind of wild.   Since the playoff seeding is essentially locked for both teams we get a Sam Darnold vs. Carson Wentz game.    What is this..  a 2017 Eagles/Jets game?   There are some statistical goals to be met for a few guys -  I look for the Rams to force fee Nacua early so he can break the rookie receiving records for both receptions and touchdowns.   Neither team is going to want to be particularly creative and give away any plays or game plans for their playoff opponents to study.    Just weird to think a game between these two division rivals will be so meaningless when they could possibly meet again two weeks later in a playoff game.

The Dolphins/Bills game should be fascinating.   The Dolphins were literally playing with a chance for the #1 seed in the AFC LAST WEEKEND and now, if they lose this game to Buffalo they tumble to the 6 seed.   That's a wild two week swing if it happens.   And the Bills can be the 2 seed in the AFC if they win or OUT OF THE PLAYOFFS if they lose....    Those are some crazy high stakes and should make for a fun final game of the regular season.

Some decent games Saturday to look forward to.   Week 18 is always more fun when there are a few de facto playoff games happening.   The Colts and Texans play Saturday night in a loser goes home, winner makes the playoffs battle.    How crazy is that?   That is basically an early playoff game for us.

Hopefully the Steelers win their game against Baltimore on Saturday afternoon to make the Sunday night game spicier.   The Steelers have a chance to make the post season with a win and Baltimore has nothing to play for and should be resting starters.   

The NFC south race is fascinating and there's a part of me that is sort of hoping that both the Bucs and Saints lose so that division sends a team with a losing record to the playoffs... again.

And the NFC East race still isn't finalized so that should be fun.   The limping Eagles could still win that division if they beat the Giants and the Cowboys somehow stumble on the road against the Commanders.   On paper that Cowboys game looks like a total mismatch.   But the Cowboys haven't played well on the road and the Commanders will be in "F-it" mode.   That will be Ron Rivera's last game as coach and with a rebuild on the horizon a ton of those players may be auditioning for spots on other teams next season and in that kind of scenario the players - and definitely the coaches -  don't care about losing to secure a better draft pick.   It's at least theoretically possible that the Commanders go out and play their butts off and steal the division crown from Dallas.   That would be kind of funny, really.

And there's actually a world where the NFC could send two 8-9 teams to the post season.  It isn't likely -  but the Packers, Seahawks, Saints, Buccaneers are all 8-8 and the Falcons are 7-9.     If the Falcons beat the Saints, and all of the other 8-8 teams lose;  and francly Seattle losing to the Cardinals wouldn't be shocking, nor would the Bears beating the Packers.... it's just the Bucs tripping up against Caronlina that would be a total surprise... but if that were to happen then not only would the 4 seed have an 8-9 record,  so would the 7 seed.    That would be some crazy chaos and so now I have to root for that outcome.

So lots of stuff to look forward to this coming week in the appetizer before the playoffs get rolling. 

I don't think anything about the NFC South is interesting. The sorry Eagles probably go to Tampa or New Orleans and win by two touchdowns. I think it's a shame that division winners automatically qualify for the playoffs.

I'm surprised to hear you say you'd like to see Baltimore again. In your shoes, I would not. Frankly, with a championship on the line, I always want to play the worst team around. The 9-7 Steelers somehow snuck in? Perfect. A lot of people say you have to beat the best to be the best, but as someone whose team has won zero Super Bowls, I'd love the opportunity to play the worst team in the field.

And this goes without saying, but let's fucking go Dawgs.

Posted by: @tsi

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Anybody want to make some ill-fated playoff predictions with me?

AFC:

1. KC
2. BUF
3. CIN
4. JAX
5. MIA
6. BAL
7. LAC

NFC:

1. PHI
2. SF
3. GB
4. ATL - couldn't go all chalk, could I?
5. DAL
6. SEA
7. DET

SB: KC over SF

9/14 feels pretty good. Especially because Cincinnati only missed the playoffs by a game and didn't have Burrow for half the season. I'll take the L on the Bucs. Not sure how many people saw that one coming.

This is how I'm leaning on the playoffs right now:

Cleveland over Houston

KC over Miami

Buffalo over Pittsburgh

Dallas over GB

LA over Detroit

Tampa over Philly

I reserve the right to change my mind about the Chiefs, Rams, and Bucs. I don't have a good feel for those matchups. KC, Detroit, and Philly are all better teams but have limped into the playoffs.

I can't wrap my head around Houston hosting a playoff game...  it really was surprising that they held up well enough to get in.      But Flacco -  a former super bowl MVP - certainly has to have the edge over a rookie QB in terms of playoff atmosphere so that Cleveland pick feels right.

Miami is in serious trouble -  half their defensive starters have been lost for the year now, and a bunch of their offensive players - Mostert and Waddle - are hurt too.    I don't trust Tua - he looked pretty bad two huge weeks in a row, so I think KC at home will be too strong.  

I'm thinking the Steelers are going to derail the Josh Allen express though.   Allen has been dismal for most of the past 3 games and has been ridiculously lucky as well.   That deflected pass that pops up in the air and somehow becomes a touchdown and a 95 yard punt return TD...  if they don't get those two miracles they really could lose that game where they held Miami to 14.     If any defense has a chance to stop Allen's running it's the Steelers.

The NFC slate is interesting.    You probably have it right... but I think there's a chance some of those bounce the other way.   

I don't trust Tampa at all -  Baker just put up one of the worst performances of the year and beat the lowly Panthers with a few field goals.    The Eagles have looked pretty dismal - but the Bucs aren't very good - so I think Philly's got a puncher's chance in that one for sure.

How gutted will Detroit be if they lose their first home playoff game in 30 years to Matt Stafford?   It's hard to think of a bigger gut punch than that.   The game should be pretty interesting as I'm not sure the Rams defense is very good - but their offense can be terrific.   I don't think it would be crazy for Detroit to take over and win... but losing Laporta is a huge blow.

I would love to think that the Packers have a chance to topple the Cowboys -  but frankly I'm not convinced the Packers are all that good.    Unfortunately I think the Cowboys are going to put the wood to the Packers and I don't expect it will be particularly close.   I'd love to be wrong though.

Personally my hope would be that round 1 goes all to the home teams -  that way the Niners get the Buccaneers in the divisional.     If not that I'd rather see the Eagles than the Rams.  

It's Tampa/Philly that's driving me nuts. Both teams have been on a downward slide, but of the two, Philly has the higher ceiling. I'm changing that pick to the Eagles. It's hard to envision Baker Mayfield winning a playoff game in 2024, even if it is to this weird-ass Eagles team.

OK, I have to admit that these most recent coach firings/changes have shocked me somewhat.    Vrabel out in Tennessee is surprising.   He's done a pretty good job there over the course, but I guess being the only team in the AFC South that wasn't alive for a playoff spot in week 18 sealed his fate.    It will be fascinating to see if is the catalyst for Belichik to be out in New England and get replaced with Vrabel.

And Pete Carroll out in Seattle is very surprising.   I would say the team actually overachieved the past two seasons given expectations and roster.    It seemed like Pete was intent on staying, but seems like maybe ownership felt it was time for something fresh.   I will be very interested in who they bring in and how that shakes out.   As our fiercest division rival I kind of hope they fumble the job and make a series of bad hires and flounder in mediocrity for years (I'm not counting on it).     

Still surprising though.     Should be fascinating to see all the teams clamor for Jim Harbaugh and how the chips fall from there.

Yeah, I don't get the Vrabel thing. My only guess is that he's too good of a coach for a rebuild/a roster that's far away. I'd say I want him to get the Panthers job, but I wouldn't wish that on my worst enemy.

Speaking of the Panthers, is it too early to call the Young/Stroud debacle one of the biggest fuck-ups in league history? Stroud was 16/21 for 274 and 3 TDs against a very good (though admittedly banged up) Browns defense. Young threw for 250+ once all season.

Lol, Cowboys. Jerry Jones finally realized what the rest of us knew all along: you aren't winning anything with Mike McCarthy.

Meanwhile, the Lions got away with one hell of a DPI on the crucial third down against the Rams. I doubt it'll get talked about much, but the CB held Nacua down on a jump ball. No way he could make the catch with someone draped around him.

Posted by: @tsi

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Cleveland over Houston

KC over Miami

Buffalo over Pittsburgh

Dallas over GB

LA over Detroit

Tampa over Philly

.500 is about as bad as I've ever been on Wildcard weekend. I feel most bamboozled by the Cowboys. I had them in the NFC title game. And that's coming from someone who liked GB all year.

I'm taking all the favorites this weekend:

BAL over HOU
SF over GB
DET over TB
BUF over KC

It's funny how surprising the results seemed when literally 5 out of 6 home teams won.

The Cowboys result I find legitimately hilarious -  probably helps that I hate that team -  but all the talk about how they figured it out after the 49ers game and this was their year to get back to the Super Bowl... and then to get blown out at home in the wild card round... that was shocking even to me.   Heads have to roll -  that result was unbelievable. 

The Eagles result shouldn't have been surprising -  the Eagles were on an unstoppable slide -  but to see them get mud stomped by a mediocre squad like Tampa -  after they saw the Cowboys go down and clear a path for them... still somehow stunned me.     The offense was stale, stilted and off kilter the entire game.   Results so bad it sent one of the best O-lineman of all time into retirement.   Good luck with your tush push without Jason Kelce.   

I honestly won't be shocked if we see both McCarthy and Sirianni sacked.    Weird for teams with double digit wins that made the playoffs -  but also not totally surprising since McCarthy is 1-4 in the playoffs with Dallas and given the way the Eagles just imploded with Sirianni having no answers at all.   

Interesting times indeed.   The path is shaping up pretty nice for the Niners.   Green Bay looked dangerous against Dallas,  but they were the 7 seed for a reason and I think SF can give them different problems.      And the Lions/Buccaneers winner doesn't scare me even a little.

Over in the AFC -  it's teams 1 through 4 in the second round.   Houston looked strong against Cleveland - a defense that was supposed to be good.   KC vs Buffalo is the game to watch - as usual.     

I'm honestly rooting for a miracle run from Houston.   I love Demeco Ryans and his OC Slowik -  both guys who were niners last year.    Having Kyle Shannahan vs his proteges for the trophy would be pretty epic.   It's likely not in the cards -  on the road against Baltimore is a super tough hill to climb - but I'll be rooting for the Texans anyway.     It would be AMAZING to see Houston get to the Super Bowl when Dallas couldn't win a playoff game and tilt the entire state of Texas. 

There are a lot of sexy names in the coaching market this year (Harbaugh, Vrabel, Ben Johnson, Slowik, Raheem Morris, Monken, etc.), but I wouldn't fire Sirianni. I think he's a good coach and the issues are personnel-related. The truth is 95% of coaches can't overcome personnel issues, and Sirianni was able to do it for like 11 weeks somehow. It also looks like Brian Johnson was a huge downgrade from Steichen. Get some new coordinators, make some picks, and see what happens in a year where the team isn't coming off a devastating Super Bowl loss.

McCarthy should be fired. He wasn't a good coach in Green Bay. As the game has advanced, his flaws have only become more glaring.

I know Baltimore is the third-best team ever by DVOA, but I honestly think the Texans have the best chance of pulling an upset this weekend (outside of KC, of course). Stroud is legit and the team has a little bit of that 2003 Panthers pixie dust on it. They had no business competing with the Browns and they beat the pants off of them.