Then my Panthers have big holes in the roster and a question mark at head coach.
I think Reich will be good for the development of Young, but there are going to be growing pains there. I think back to how bad Trevor Lawrence was in his rookie season - and then look at how good he's becoming and think about the fact that teams drafting QB #1 are drafting that high because they haven't been great. So they have to build the roster (especially the O-Line) but I think they will get it together. It does mean they probably won't be great this season but that division stinks - so they don't have to be great, just slightly above average.
I don't think Atlanta has the answer at QB - they beat the Panthers with defense and a sound running attack that won't surprise teams going forward. And New Orleans has a patchwork roster with some decent pieces but Carr only had like two good drives in that game... none of the teams in that division are power houses I don't think.
Some general thoughts from today's games...
- How do Justin Herbert and the Chargers keep losing? Another phenomenal game from Herbert backed by a talented roster and they still lost. Is the coaching that bad?
- C.J. Stroud was great today. As a Panthers fan who thought they should've picked Stroud to begin with, yikes.
- Zach Wilson is really bad.
- The Bucs and Falcons are both 2-0. What?
- Is Joe Burrow hurt? He's not playing like a top 5 QB right now.
- The end of that Pats/Dolphins game was highway robbery. NE picked up that first down, no doubt.
I agree in being totally dumbfounded by the call on that Pats/Dolphins game. And really there is no way the look there was definitive enough to overturn and it wasn't like it was a touchdown. It just extends the game and gives the Pats a chance to go for the tying score. Much more exciting if they just let the call stand... terrible for everyone involved except maybe Dolphins fans.
I was having a debate with a friend of mine yesterday after the Niners game. Niners are up by 10 and there are 4 seconds on the clock. The Rams elect to kick a meaningless field goal to lose by 7 instead of 10. Is that necessary? I feel like Shanahan would have had his QB take a knee there to concede, and other coaches at the very least might take a shot at the endzone to see if they could... it just seemed weird to kick that field goal that was meaningless to the outcome. But then I saw that there were sports books that had the line for the game at 49ers minus 7 and a half. So that field goal moves the point difference from 10 to 7 and rewards people who bet on the Rams. Could McVay have really been throwing a bone to bettors by kicking a field goal that was other wise meaningless? IDK - it just seemed frivolous.
CJ Stroud did have a decent day. He was playing a Colts defense that gave up 31 points to a Jaguars team that couldn't find the end zone at all this past Sunday... but still nice. I don't think you have to be worried about Bryce just yet. You've seen one game from him and the O-line played terribly. It's not likely Stroud would have looked any better for Carolina last week. Give Bryce some time before you give up on him.
I am equally confused by the Bucs and Falcons starts. I can't even figure it out with the Falcons... the stats for their QB are pretty awful. I think maybe there's just alot of bad teams in the NFL right now so unless teams are facing Philly, Dallas, SF or Miami(?) they can be competitive in any contest? I don't think Green Bay is good, I just think the Bears are awful.
And how about that tank job in Arizona... they go up 3 touchdowns on the Giants and then just turn off the engine to ensure they lose? Like they have been competitive early in both of their games and then just give them away... I feel like losing on purpose in the NFL should carry some kind of punishment, not be rewarded.
Two games tonight... if they Browns and Steelers look like they did last week, Cleveland should win in a walk. But division games get tricky like that.
And the Panthers will get to see how they stack up against the Saints. If they drop that game they will be 0-2 in a division where everyone else is 2-0. It's almost must win for Carolina. Hopefully Bryce Young is able to build and find some weaknesses and hopefully Derek Carr pulls a Jimmy Garoppolo in week 2 and goes from hero to goat...
I was perplexed by McVay opting to cover the spread. I don't think Shanahan would take a knee, but you have to take a shot at the end zone there.
I commend Arizona for tanking. If the Panthers had done so last year, they wouldn't be out a first-round pick, two second-round picks, and DJ Moore. Tanking happens in the NBA with no guarantee of success. It makes far too much sense in the NFL, yet almost no team does it. I hoped the Panthers would tank for at least the last three years. Who could've guessed that Sam Darnold and Teddy Bridgewater weren't permanent solutions at QB?
Stroud's playing without 80% of his starting offensive line. It's not like the Texans are markedly better than the Panthers, either. After two games of Bryce Young, I'm about ready to throw in the towel. As I expected, his ability to extend plays doesn't translate to the NFL. In the NFL, every player is equivalent to the best athlete he ever played against at Alabama. He doesn't have the arm strength to throw on the move. He's been surprisingly inaccurate, sailing about 10 passes so far, including several surefire touchdowns.
The Panthers receiving core is woeful, but so is Kansas City's. Mahomes has thrown for almost twice as many yards as Young already. The coaching staff is afraid to let Young throw the ball, and I suspect that's with good reason. It's all checkdowns. I'll give it a few more weeks, but I'm feeling vindicated about my initial C.J. Stroud/Bryce Young takes.
I don't think it helps that Frank Reich is the head coach. With the exception of taking down the statue of Jerry Richardson and bringing Steve Smith back into the fold, the organizational decisions have been putrid across the board since David Tepper bought the team. The league is moving toward young, offense-minded coaches, and the Panthers hired an old man with a questionable head coaching record.
I'll concede all your points after watching more of the Panthers last night. Young looked terrible for most of the night, although when it went off schedule he made a couple of nice plays. Just some unforgiveable overthrows that are total head scratchers. Perhaps teams put too much emphasis on Wunderlich test - but the Stroud/Young comparison there was dramatic... Stroud had one of the lowest Wunderlich's ever while Young was apparently 98th percentile... I think that's what sealed the deal for Carolina picking Bryce.
But the reality is that QB's drafted at the front of the class flame out hard as often as they succeed... interestingly guys taken further back in their QB class can come through - Lamar Jackson - 5th QB taken that year behind the likes of Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold; and Jalen Hurts - fell to second round, 4th QB selected - being recent examples. I mean Mitch Trubisky was picked ahead of Mahomes and Watson; and of course Tom Brady is the all-time example.
If you want to make yourself laugh sometime - check out the 2007 draft class where Jamarcus Russell was taken first overall - ahead of Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis, Marshawn Lynch, Darrell Revis, Joe Staley and Greg Olson. 3 of those guys are already in the hall of fame and I think up to 3 more could join them.
I'll still hope that Bryce can settle down and turn it around - but get him a more QB friendly coach and a better offensive line or it definitely ends in disaster.
So, this Bryce Young injury news... real or smoke screen for a soft benching while they work on timing and mechanics? Seattle is a tough place to play and I'm thinking they didn't want Bryce going in there and getting overwhelmed and having things snow ball. Andy Dalton has played there before and could be a steadying influence.
Bummer about Trevon Diggs tearing his ACL in practice. It's never cool when guys suffer season ending injuries. Also, I was hoping the Niners would get to cook him this year to highlight how his knack for interceptions covers up the fact that he blows coverages a ton. Also also hate giving Cowboys fans excuses for if they fail to succeed.
Giants play on the road, with short rest, without the starters on the left side of their O-line and without their best offensive player. Really hope the Niners don't get over-confident and forget to show up.
I think Bryce is really hurt. Some eagle-eyed Panthers fan tracked down the play where he was probably hurt. The advanced metrics really come to Young's defense when it comes to receiver separation and time to throw. That's about the only thing that gives me hope, however. Also hard to imagine things changing any time soon given the lack of draft picks and the franchise's poor draft history.
The Niners looked great tonight aside from those white pants (blech) and some Purdy shakiness. I'm ready to name them the class of the league alongside Dallas and Philly. I'd have KC and Miami right below that on the next tier.
Whoo boy that was a fun weekend. Only 3 undefeated teams left standing. I thought the Diggs injury was going to hurt Dallas, but man their offense did them no favors at all in that game against Arizona. The Cardinals were a team built to tank but they play frisky and take advantage of mistakes. We get the red birds Sunday, so hopefully they're a little fat and happy and the Niners aren't overconfident after watching what happened to Dallas.
I was ready to acknowledge Philly as ready to round into form and try to take that 1 seed for a second year in a row... but then I looked at their schedule. From week 7 through week 14 the Eagles schedule is:
Dolphins, @Commanders, Cowboys, @Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, @Cowboys, @Seahawks...
That is quite the gauntlet of tough games. The Eagles are good, so it's not like they'll lose all of those - but that is just a non-stop buffet of the NFL's best squads (okay, except for Washington they aren't good).
It's not like SF's schedule is a ton more generous - they have a 3 week stretch that goes Seahawks, Eagles, Seahawks - with the first two on the road. But their games against Jacksonville and Tampa don't look as tough as they did after week 1. They get the Browns, Vikings and Bengals... but it's unclear which version of those teams they'll see. If it's the version we've seen through the first 3 weeks that isn't very scary. Hopefully they learned some valuable things about how to exploit the Cowboys after that Arizona game so they can take care of dem Boys a week and a half from now.
And I agree with everything you point out about Young... but it does him no favors that Stroud is going off for a Texans team that was supposed to be terrible.
I gotta brag about the Sean Payton hiring. I thought it was a waste of picks at the time. It's looking even worse in retrospect. The guy never impressed me much in New Orleans and now he's doing nothing to elevate a mediocre Broncos team. His playoff record was secretly abysmal with a couple of really good Saints teams.
The fact that Philly is 3-0 despite looking relatively unimpressive is a massive accomplishment, especially on the back of a heartbreaking Super Bowl loss. I agree that SF is in a good spot to take the one-seed, though. That schedule is brutal.
I don't know what to make of the Browns. You could tell me they don't make the playoffs or they win the Super Bowl and I'd believe you. Their defense is outstanding. They'll go as far as Watson will take them.
Meanwhile, Caleb Williams was in the headlines today because he's being bandied about as a potential future Hall of Famer. I think it's truly nuts to put that on a college kid, but I do expect him to be pretty good regardless. The Bears, Vikings, and Broncos are currently in poll position to grab him in April. Sadly, my Panthers aren't in the mix despite looking every bit as bad as those three teams.
Man... how hilarious would it be for the Broncos to end up with the #1 overall pick in a year where they could draft Caleb Williams, but also to be locked in to financial hell with Russel Wilson? Pretty hilarious...? They literally still owe Wilson close to $100 million in guaranteed money. The dead cap number for releasing him next year would be astronomical more than $80 million in dead money if they release him after this season. You can't pay an average of $40 million of your cap each year over the next two years for a guy you cut... that's insanity.
Trying to temper some expectations with people around here. 49ers excitement is starting to get rolling and I'm like... it's 3 games, can we chill? If we get to 8-0, having taken down the Cowboys, Browns, Vikings and Bengals... then we can start to feel a little good. But even then there's a lot of tough games in the back half of the schedule too. Can't count the chickens when all you got is eggs...
woof... Thursday night football tonight - Bears/Commanders. Two teams going nowhere - both of whom had "feel good losses" last week. The Commanders took the Eagles to overtime before losing and the Bears had a three score lead on the Broncos... but at least Fields had his best statistical day ever?
Tonight's game could conceivably be anything. It could be a turnover-fest that finishes 17-13 or it could be one of those offenses-run-wild both ways scenarios...
Gearing up for the Sunday nighter. Hoping my Niners can make Dallas look more like the team that choked against Arizona and less like the team that rolled up nearly 40 on the Patriots. Hoping that strong run game keeps the pass rush on its heels and the 'Boys offense on the sideline.
Gearing up for the Sunday nighter. Hoping my Niners can make Dallas look more like the team that choked against Arizona and less like the team that rolled up nearly 40 on the Patriots. Hoping that strong run game keeps the pass rush on its heels and the 'Boys offense on the sideline.
I'd say you did ok! That was a fun game to watch, as was the Steelers/Ravens game earlier in the day. I don't have the time to get super deep into football like I used to but this has been a fun season so far. I know the 49ers and Dolphins have been coming up for a little bit now but it's really cool to get excited about some new blood at the top. And though I like the Chiefs it's kind of nice to see them struggle a little bit. The game is much more interesting when there isn't a returning dominating force. Looking at you down there, Patriots.
And though I haven't had a chance to watch them play yet, the Colts are getting me excited. The Anthony Richardson injury is certainly worrisome (though really, I assumed he'd be getting hurt early and often given his style of play) but Minshew is a solid backup and with Taylor back the offense should be in pretty good shape. If they can beat the Jags next week they should be at the top of their division!
I feel for the Bills and their fans. I know a disproportionate number of Bills fans and this has been another brutal season. They looked like the class of the AFC after dismantling the Dolphins, but they can't catch a break. Injuries to key players may have killed their Super Bowl aspirations already. Their window may have firmly closed. They should've won it all in 2021/2022 (the year they lost the 13-second game to KC).
The Niners look like prohibitive favorites. The Eagles are the only team in their league right now. I hope Shanahan is able to win one. He's certainly deserved it for his sustained excellence over the years. Purdy is the only potential chink in the armor.
Meanwhile, my team looks to have traded the #1 pick in a historically good QB draft to pick a 5'9 outlier. It's looking worse by the second. If you were wondering, no team has ever traded a 1st round pick that wound up being #1 overall.
Yeah... I'm still hoping the Panthers will find a way to be better - but it's looking tough. Facing the Dolphins next won't help - and then a duel with the Texans where if CJ Stroud plays significantly better than Young - that will be a bad look. They don't exactly have the toughest remaining schedule, so maybe there's opportunity for some wins. The offense line is SO bad though it's going to be tough for them to sustain drives enough to win with any regularity.
I didn't see the Bills performance coming - but London does that to teams sometimes. Way worse to lose two more defensive starters for the year than to lose that game.
And while I didn't expect the Pats to be good, I didn't see them taking Belichick's two biggest losses in his career back to back.
The Steelers finding ways to win games with the barest semblance of a functioning offense is something. Them being in first place in that division may be an indictment on the division overall or maybe not. My team will get to find out more having two of the next three against Cleveland and Cincy.
And speaking of my team - man was Sunday satisfying. I have a special kind of loathing for the Cowboys and was so done with the talk of how dominant and elite their defense was. It was nice to punch a big hole right through that narrative. Now hopefully the team can put the win away and focus on the task at hand. I suppose it's fortunate that the back to back road games SF has against Cleveland and Minnesota are in mid October and not December. But I do think I liked it better when the football world in general was dismissing Brock Purdy and not gassing him up.
The schedule just stays tough though... After the Browns and Vikings (division winner last year) they get the Bengals - playoff team last year, Jaguars - playoff team last year, Buccaneers - playoff team last year, Seahawks - playoff team last year, Eagles - NFC Champs last year, Seahawks again and the Ravens - playoff team last year. They literally have to play every single NFC playoff team from last season and 3 of the 7 AFC playoff teams from last year. That is a ridiculous schedule to have to grind through.
Luckily the road for the Eagles is just as stacked with playoff teams themselves - Dolphins, Chiefs, Bills, Niners and two times each against the Cowboys and Giants (though that hardly seems very intimidating right now). Both SF and Philly get 10 of their 16 games against teams that were in last year's post season. They'll both be battle tested by the end, that's for sure.
And while I didn't expect the Pats to be good, I didn't see them taking Belichick's two biggest losses in his career back to back.
But I do think I liked it better when the football world in general was dismissing Brock Purdy and not gassing him up.
I'm still extremely skeptical of Purdy. His coach made Matt Ryan an MVP. I think he's probably somewhere between the 12th and 18th best QB in the league and he's playing like the 5th best thanks to Shanahan.
As far as the Patriots go, it's been such a sad decline that it's been difficult to enjoy. I know we've had Pats fans here in the past, so I'm sorry for my schadenfreude, but many of your compatriots were insufferable for two decades. Sadly, their suffering may be over as quickly as it began. If the Pats get a high draft pick and find the right QB, it may be an immediate bounceback. As surprising as it is to say, firing the coach could help, too.
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