And by "Ravens," obviously I meant "Steelers."

Well colour me impressed.   I wasn't able to watch the game due to a local Santa Claus Parade but was able to follow the score at least.

Now as a true Bills fan let me move the goal posts.   Great they won against the best team in the league.   Now prove to me you can win in the playoffs.   Classic fan mentality......

Oh and the 49ers crapped the bed against the Seahawks so what do I know?  haha

This 49ers team is SO frustrating.    They have lost 3 division games by a combined 7 points all of which they were leading with less than two minutes to play in the game.      They have only lost ONE game by more than one score and could honestly, easily be 9 and 1 instead of 5 and 5 with just a handful of defensive stops and made field goals.     They are now 1 and 3 in the division and should be 4-0.     

They now have back to back road games in Green Bay and Buffalo.    They either bow up and prove they are a playoff team -  likely without their only pass rusher -  or they fold and end up with another lost season and add to the "Super Bowl Loser Hangover" narrative.   Sigh.

They are only one game behind Arizona in the division and tied with everyone else -  but it's brutal and they have BY FAR the hardest remaining schedule of the rest of the teams in the West.   

The NFC South isn't a ton better.    None of those teams look very good week to week either.   The Buccaneers sometimes look decent but are losing a lot.  The Falcons have a couple of good wins and a handful of bad losses too.   It's a very weird division.

The Ravens and Bengals are funny -  I watch them and they are both good teams who lose a bunch of close games (hey like the 49ers) -  and the Steelers don't exactly look like world beaters but they do keep winning.    Winning a game when scoring no Touchdowns and allowing multiple touchdowns is crazy work.

Meanwhile the Lions keep dropping 50 points on bad teams -  which is often the sign of a good squad.    

Commanders may be hitting the pumpkin watch portion of their schedule... I'm curious about how that plays out.   And while my team is struggling -  at least the Cowboys and Raiders are sucking even more.

I'm beginning to think there's one great team this year and we're all ignoring it like we always do. I could see KC, Baltimore, Buffalo, or a random NFC team like Minnesota giving Detroit a tough time in the playoffs, but the Lions are clearly the best team in football.

If I were a Niners fan, I'd be slamming the panic button. It's starting to look like winning the division is their only pathway to the playoffs. Seattle and Arizona have tough games against the Vikings left, but their schedules are manageable otherwise. Every game is a must-win or close for SF.

The Super Bowl hangover is a real thing. As a Panthers fan, I can tell you how brutal it is first-hand. When you make the Super Bowl, you feel like it's the start of a multi-year window. Often, it can be the end of it. The Panthers made the playoffs once since they went 15-1 and blew the Super Bowl to the Broncos.

Yeah...  I mean.. the Niners lost the Super Bowl in 2020 and didn't make the playoffs the following year then went NFC Championship Game, NFC Championship Game and then Super Bowl -  so it doesn't mean the door has to slam shut,  but deep playoff runs year after year after year do tend to take a toll on people's bodies.   

I think there's a reason the Chiefs are a little banged up and don't look nearly as dominant this season.  Even though they are  9-1 they have trailed in the second half of like 8 of their 10 games and have only two wins by more than one score.   I think it's because they are a bit worn out and trying to operate at 80% so they have something left for the post season.   It's a risk though -  because people get hurt that way (see SF).

If the Niners can somehow gut out wins in the next two games - which is an enormous IF - then I think they can win the division.    And if they can manage to do it while getting McCaffrey, Kittle, Bosa and Greenlaw fully healthy in time for the post-season,  then they could actually be dangerous in the playoffs.     But I think there are better odds that they stumble and lose another close one in Green Bay and then get blown off the field in Buffalo and it's a lost season.

If that's what happens then I'll have no qualms hoping the Lions get to roll through everybody -  that's a story you can feel good about.     And I can't root for any other NFC West team,  and I hate the stupid Eagles,  and the NFC South is a trash fire -  though I do hope the Panthers find a way to turn it around soon.  And I despise the Packers and the Bears are just sad.  And the Vikings are finding out what it's like to put all your eggs in the Sam Darnold basket

On the AFC side,   I hope somehow the AFC Championship game is the Chargers and the Steelers, just because it would have been unthinkable before the season.    I would love for Harbaugh to take San Diego... I mean LA to a Super Bowl in his first season.   That would be ridiculous and hilarious.   I don't think it's very possible given the team's limitations -  they don't have anybody who can reliably get open on a route when it's needed.   But still it would be quite something.   Especially if Jim got to knock John out of the playoffs as revenge for the Super Bowl.

So here's me wishing for a Niners/Chargers Super Bowl... but it will probably be Lions/Chiefs

This is already the sixth year of that 49ers' window. I'm not saying it will shut, but it's very difficult to keep it open that long in the NFL. John Lynch is an excellent GM. I have larger questions about Shanahan, but he can scheme up a good offense.

In this century, only the Packers, Chiefs, Patriots, and Colts have had playoff streaks that long. They were all buoyed by transcendent QB play. SF has to pay Purdy soon. Probably this offseason.

The good news is there's no heir apparent in the division. Arizona deserves some kudos for roster building, but I don't believe in the Cardinals. Seattle and LA have big holes, too.

We'll see. It's going to get a lot harder for the Niners soon, though.

Oh for sure.    I understand that.    Luckily I don't think there are any dominant QB's in the NFC right now.   Stafford is old and getting older.   Jared Goff has a great team but isn't transcendent.   Daniels, Williams, McCarthy - all rookies who are total unknowns.      I'm not a believer in the greatness of Love or Hurts.     So Purdy is already among the best in his conference.    They need young guys to develop and step up  -  they have young talent in the secondary,  it's O-line and D-line that will be key.     Maybe they can lure Saleh back to head up the defense again next season and make another assault on the summit.

Or maybe it falls off for a minute and they retool.    This is a team that went to three straight NFC Championships and a Super Bowl with Smith and Kaepernick,  fell off a cliff and were back in the Super Bowl 5 years later with a run of 4 NFC Championship Games and 2 Super Bowls over 5 seasons.       

That's so much more than SO many fan bases get,  so I try not to get to spoiled about it.    It would be nice to have at least one Lombardi mixed in there for sure -   but it's better than the vast majority of teams can say over the past 12 years.      The Lions wish they had that resume.   The Cowboys.   Hell every NFC team except the Buccaneers, Eagles, Rams and Seahawks would trade for that.   

Anyway -  that game last night was bananas.   Almost a full white-out by the end.   Steelers struggled on offense again and Jameis did hero things to lift Cleveland to an improbable win.      Thursday night football has been more fun than usual this season.

And the Giants straight up released Daniel Jones this morning.   That is crazy.   Who picks him up?   Anyone?   The Raiders?   The Cowboys (that would be hilarious)

Football has been far too depressing for me to talk about the last several weeks.

The Niners go into Green Bay without their starting QB, several O-linemen and their best pass rusher and predictably get blown off the field.   Sigh.   Then they go into Buffalo having lost McCaffrey for the season, still down O-linemen, still down Bosa and have to play in a blizzard - the kind of conditions that totally favor Josh Allen over Brock Purdy and the Niners get lit up again.    That was always a tough back to back road schedule - but the injuries and field conditions made the outcomes inevitable.

What wasn't inevitable was the rest of the division becoming semi-competent at the same time.   They have easier schedules, to be sure, but the Seahawks winning 4 straight sucks.   There is no world where they should have won that game in Santa Clara and now it's kickstarted them.    Now I have to hope Green Bay can do to them what they did to SF, then the Vikings can keep rolling too - and those two teams can break them badly enough that Bears can flex and win a home game.   If the NFC North can hand Seattle a 3 game losing streak,  all may not be lost.

If the Niners can take down the Rams on Thursday night and somehow the Jets can pull it together at home -  the Rams can split beat the Cardinals and lose to the Seahawks they would finish they would finish 8-9.    If the Jets can't beat them that would make things dicier.

As for the Cardinals... If we win out they can't catch us since we have the same record and it would mean we beat them in the last game of the season.... but it would be nice if they dropped one of the next two to the Patriots or Panthers just for some insurance.    

Hell -  it would be nice if all 3 of those teams went ahead and lost ALL of their non-head to head match ups so I had less to worry about.  

The Niners have to get revenge on LA for the last second loss from earlier this year on Thursday night.   If we can get that one,  I think Kyle can take down his protege in Miami with the extra time to prepare.   Then it's all about that Lions game - and at least that's at home.

If we lose Thursday night the season is basically over.   Short week means it's unlikely Bosa will be back and the Rams block better than the Bears and Stafford doesn't hold the ball as long as Caleb and the Rams receivers actually get open,  so I can't say I have a tone of confidence.   Sigh.    

And I don't know what kind of rabbit's foot Mahomes or Andy Reid have stashed up their ass this season, but winning every single game on the last play of the game doesn't seem like a great sustainable strategy.    They keep doing it, but at some point you miss that kick and it doesn't bounce in, right?

Such a bummer for the Chargers -  they played pretty well in KC against that good defence and that kick hit the upright... they should have left with a big victory instead of that crushing defeat.   So lame.

Does anybody want to win the NFC South?     Tampa has losable games against the Chargers and Cowboys next, while the Falcons get the Raiders and Giants... so the standings could flip flop yet again.     Seems insane that the three best teams in the NFC might all be in one division.   

I know the Eagles record looks good - but they maybe should have lost that game against Carolina - if that last pass is one centimeter higher that's a touchdown and the Panthers beat them.   And they maybe should have lost to the Ravens last week too...  

Anyway - maybe it will be a fun final month. 

I hope my team can win so there's drama in the division race until the final week

(OK, really I'd be happy if the Niners were 9-7, the Seahawks were 8-8, the rams were 7-9 and the Cardinals were 7-9 going in to the final weekend to minimize how much drama it would be -  although, if that were the case and the Seahawks were to beat the Rams and the Niners lost to the Cards... they would have the same win loss record against common opponents and it would come down to point differential?   The Seahawks point differential is currently +12 and the 49ers is currently Zero.   But - in this scenario the 49ers would have gone three and 1 and the Seahawks would gone 1 and 3 so if the net score difference in those wins and losses was more than a 13 point advantage for the 49ers, they would win the division.    Good lord, I hope it doesn't come down to that)

PC, you gotta take the L this season. The best case for the Niners is to lose out and get a pick in the early teens. The last thing you want is to limp into the postseason and get blown out by the Eagles or Lions. Or hell, even the Vikings or Packers. This version of the Niners isn't beating any of those teams, let alone the AFC champ.

Bryce Young looks like an NFL player? I've never seen anything like this at the QB position. He looked like the worst player in football for a season and a half. If the Panthers keep collecting losses to improve their draft pick, they might compete for the division next year.

I like the way the AFC playoff picture is shaping up. Denver is pretty good for a 7-seed. From the divisional round on we should have some awesome playoff games.

The KC thing... hmmph. That third-and-seven proves why I hate picking against Mahomes, but they don't inspire much confidence. I could easily see the Bills, Ravens, Chargers, or Steelers knocking them out. I could also see them lucking their way to a third consecutive Super Bowl.

So,  if we can get to the post season with Bosa actually back, and with Greenlaw actually back, I think our defense starts to look better.    Guerrendo isn't McCaffrey -  but he looks competent.    in the scenario where the Niners win their division they beat Detroit to get there -  that gives them the confidence that they can do it again.   As a division winner,  fair or not,  they get a home game in the first round,  which means they don't have to play in Green Bay if they get the Packers again...    And one thing I know is that the Packers DO NOT win in San Francisco in the post season.   They just don't.     

Again, it's all pipe dreaming - because the reality is we're probably losing on Thursday night, at which point I concede to the proposition you're pitching -   but if the playoffs were to stack up that way:

Wildcard Round

bye -  Lions

7. Commanders  at   2.  Eagles

6.  Packers  at   3.  49ers

5.   Vikings    at   4.  Tamplanta Falconeeers  

Divisional Round:

Vikings  at   Lions

49ers  at  Eagles

I'm not in love with the match up against the Eagles,  but I also don't fully trust them.   They're good at running the ball but those last two games they won they absolutely could have lost.   But that's a fun revenge game,  Purdy back on the field where he got injured in the post-season two years ago...  

Also, there's a world where the Commanders, who know the Eagles, could buck up and pull off the Round 1 upset and then the Niners could be hosting a Divisional Round game against Minnesota.   And that's a fun story with their back up QB from last year leading coming back to town with huge stakes.     And I think it could be kind of hilarious for the Niners -  who lost to all 3 of those NFC North teams this season, to play all 3 of them again in the post-season.    The Vikings are beatable,  heck if one play goes different in the first meeting the Niners win that game.

So yeah, it's all delusion,  but the Niners haven't been quite as bad as their record suggests this year.   And I am not a believer in any other NFC team this season except the Lions... and if the Niners can play and beat the Lions in week 17 -  then who knows?     

That's sports fandom,  hold on to the dream as long as you can...  which might be Thursday night.   The Rams could kill it dead on Thursday at which point we probably are better off losing out and reloading for next year.   Stupid Super Bowl loser curse.

And I do have to say -  the way the Bryce Young benching seems to have worked and made not just him, but the whole team, better inspires confidence in Canales.   I think its possible to believe the Panthers might really have some hope for an upward trajectory.    It makes more sense now,  when all the pundits were incredulous that Carolina wouldn't immediately trade Young,  why the team stuck with him.  They had a plan and it looks like it might be working.

Well,  that insipid performance on a rain soaked field was enough to drain all hope from me in this lost garbage season.   I knew when I saw Deebo let that pass go right through his hands for what could have been a walk in touchdown on a third down throw that we were doomed.     And then watching Ricky Pearsall run the wrong route multiple times.   Sigh.       

Had we won that stupid game -  with the Seahawks getting the stuffing beat out of them,  things could have been trending the way I wanted (even with Arizona winning) -  now we might be better off losing to Miami and Detroit and taking the better draft slot.   So dumb.

Crazy that the Packers team that crushed the Seahawks in Seattle is going to finish third in it's division.      Texans at Chiefs on Saturday becomes interesting if Mahomes can't play.    The Chiefs defense is still really good and both teams have clinched their divisions already,  so I don't know how motivated Houston will be, but if Mahomes can't play and KC's offense is even worse than it has been -  the Texans could have a shot and Buffalo could start thinking again about that #1 seed since they beat KC head to head.

Vikings at Seahawks becomes a very interesting game.   Vikings are now tied with the Lions at 12-2 and can think about winning the North.   The Seahawks are tied with the Rams and desperately need to win if they want to see the playoffs.    Geno Smith is banged up.   Signs are currently that he'll play - but it's early and if he doesn't, can Sam Howell really get Seattle over the hump against Minnesota?     The Vikings have to win since the Lions go against the Bears who mustered only a garbage time touchdown against Minnesota yesterday.    Plus the Lions are coming off a loss despite scoring 42 points and are still mad the Bears took them to the wire on Thanksgiving.

Philly vs Washington is the only other game with Playoff implications.   The Commanders need it to cement their hold on the final wild card spot.   But the Eagles are rolling and it's about the time rookie QB's tend to hit that wall.   If Washington loses it opens the door for one of the NFC West teams to think about possible Wild Card entry into the post season.

Most of the rest of the games are between teams just trying to play out the string though, which is always a depressing time of year.

KC has a tough game against Pittsburgh next week, but I can't see them losing both of the next two. Still, I'm finally out on the Chiefs. They scored 30 points twice this season and the Bills are really good. If we get another Mahomes/Allen playoff matchup, I'm picking the Bills.

I give the Rams a slight edge to win the NFC West. The Seahawks beat up on bad teams but can't win games against good teams. In fact, they usually get destroyed in those games. They lost to the Lions, Bills, and Packers by two scores. The Vikings probably add to that list this week.

On a big-picture basis, I always feel bad for the good divisions. The AFC West and NFC North will likely send three teams each to the playoffs while the Rams (-28 point differential), Bucs, and Texans will host playoff games. The Bucs got to play the Panthers, Saints, and Falcons a combined six times.

Weeks ago I was saying the Lions are clearly the best team. They may have passed the point of no return with injuries, though. I could see Philly, GB, or MIN getting the best of them in the playoffs.

I refuse to believe in the Eagles because I hate Nick Siriani that much and I am not a Jalen Hurts fan.  I'm happy for Saquon,  but I really, really hope the Eagles are one and done in the post-season again and lose to whoever they face in the wild card round.   Of course... they might not be in the wild card round because they are 12-2 and have the easiest remaining schedule facing the NFC East -  Washington, then Dallas and New York.   They should finish 15-2.   

Meanwhile the Vikings have the Seahawks in Seattle, the Packers and the Lions in Detroit.

and the Lions have the Bears and 49ers on the road before hosting the Vikings.    

The Lions offense is super capable but the injuries on defense may be too much to overcome for them to make it to the big game.   

So, Philly probably has the inside track on the 1 seed.   Sigh.

Of the options left in the NFC I'd be happiest for the Lions or Vikings to go to the Super Bowl -  neither team has ever won a Super Bowl - Detroit has never even been - so that would be a fun narrative.   

In the AFC it feels a little more wide open than it's been...    If you had told me that the Ravens might be a wild card team in a season where neither Cincinnati nor Cleveland makes the playoffs I would have thought that was crazy.    

My order of preference of likely playoff teams to win the Super Bowl it's

Chargers (Harbaugh!)

Texans (Demeco)

Vikings

Lions

Bills

Commanders

Broncos

Steelers

Rams

Buccaneers

Ravens

Chiefs

Eagles 

Packers

Seahawks

That's not who I think WILL win,  that's who I would prefer to win.   I think the most likely options are the Bills, the Eagles (ick) or the Chiefs (ugg.. they are - inevitable)

I'm with you on the Bills, Lions, and Vikings. And the Chargers, to a lesser degree. As a fan of loser-ass teams, I always root for other loser-ass teams to find success. Long-suffering fan bases deserve joy, too.

So ... I guess last night's game was sort of best case scenario for me really...?  Or at least I'm trying to convince myself of that.    The Lions were playing to win - not resting any starters and going all out in a game they didn't actually have to win since it didn't change the importance of the outcome of next week's game for them.   But the Niners were already eliminated from any chance at post-season, so losing out is actually better for the team in terms of draft position.   

And a loss secures them a last place schedule for next season which can be huge -   it can be the difference between drawing the 4th place Raiders instead of the 3rd place Broncos, or the 4th place Bears instead of the 3rd place Packers  or even the Giants instead of the Cowboys ... though I don't think the Niners are worried about the Cowboys.     

Still, it was nice to go toe to toe with the Lions who were trying their hardest and show we could - arguably should, if we had a competent kicker - beat them even with a 5th string running back, 4th string left tackle and patchwork defense.    I know the Lions defense is also a mash unit of injury replacement guys - but they are in pole position for the one seed, so...

So, for playoff seeding in the NFC -  the only real questions are  which NFC North team is 1 and which is 5 - and which NFC South team is in...    

The Vikings-Lions match-up should be crazy good.   The Vikings played well enough to win the first meeting but just barely didn't.   The Lions are super beat up on defense.    The Vikings have a real shot.

And if you had told someone three or four years ago that Sam Darnold and Jared Goff would be battling each other for the #1 overall seed you would have sounded certifiably insane.

I'm going to make two assumptions here for this next bit.   The Packers will beat the Bears at home and the Buccaneers will beat the Saints.    If the Bucs lose and Atlanta beats the Panthers - the Falcons become the 4 seed, but I'm not sure much changes, frankly.

First round match ups then are likely:

Commanders at Eagles     ----->       Eagles

Packers at Rams     ------->              Rams

Vikings/Lions at Buccaneers   ---->    NFC North

I know it's trendy to think the Packers are frisky -  but Green Bay has not been good against the best teams in the NFC this season.   They beat the Rams early in the year when the Rams had no wide receivers.   I think the Rams are better now and have a QB and Coach who have experience winning in the post-season, so I think LA wins at home.     

That makes the second round match-ups the  Rams at Eagles and Vikings vs the Lions for the third time this year.

The Eagles will beat the Rams at home.    The Vikings/Lions match up in the divisional round would be fascinating.  I think it would be important for the home team to win so neither dome team would have to travel to Philadelphia to play outside in late January.     So if the Vikings win next Sunday, then I'd hope the Vikings would beat the Lions again.    If the Lions win though in week 18 then I think they'd be at home for the Vikings rematch.   It's tough to beat a team 3 times, especially with a banged up defense, so if the Vikings go back into Detroit and win the playoff game they have to go to Philly and I think they lose that.    I do think the Eagles could probably beat the Lions in Detroit though.   So, I guess I have to hope the Vikings get the 1 seed and then beat the Lions so they can host Philly.    Because the one thing I absolutely cannot abide is watching the damn Siriani Eagles go back to the Super Bowl again.   I hate that guy and that team so damn much.

On the AFC side I don't know how it will play out but my hope is that either the Chargers make a Cinderella run or the Bills finally get there.

It would be kind of amazing to have a Bills vs Vikings Super Bowl.    Both teams are 0-4 in  Super Bowls.   One team would finally get over the hump and get that first elusive Super Bowl title while the other team would suffer the franchise's crushing 5th title game defeat without a win.