I feel like Ultimates, and possibly even S7 as a whole, might be a thing of the past soon if they don't improve the business model.  Need to get a handle on the delays and QC issues, improve the articulation, and they desperately need to find a way to get their costs down to a level where they can sell these at the prices people are willing to pay.  Getting rid of weapon trees, shipping boxes, and slipcovers is a start.... but none of those cost savings were passed to the customer (heck, prices went up 2 or 3 times while they were cutting it).  

 

People aren't going to preorder direct after so many waves got deep discounts at retailers not even a year after release, which honestly may have already doomed Ultimates outright

Some of those things I think are fixable and some of them are not.   

First and foremost -  I am not someone that wants them to do a ton of innovation on their articulation.    Obivously I want what they do to be functional,  but I want their figures to be consistent with what has come before and what exists in the scale and form factor already.

That's less of a deal breaker in the Turtles line because of the various body types and what not -  but I would be grumpy if they substantially changed the articulation layout for their standard Thundercats and Silverhawks bodies at this stage.

Delays and QC issues should get fixed.   They need to find a reliable factory relationship and stick with it.   Cycle through the various properties and get on a reliable production schedule that is predictable and doesn't result in numerous endless delays.

I also don't think it's realistic at this stage to expect the cost of the figures to come down.    I realize that companies like Nacelle and some of the Kickstarer ventures are working in the $35 to $40 range.   So it's not that it would b.e impossible for them to sell Ultimates at a lower cost - but for the Kickstarters there are no licensing fees involved.   No license holders to pay.    And with Nacelle, the properties they've licensed thus far haven't been enormous so I'm not sure how much the outlay actually is or what entities they are having to work with.   But when working with entities like Warner Brothers, Hasbro and Disney the licensing costs are likely higher.    

Ditching some of the added accessories would be a good trade off if it could drive down costs,  but I doubt it would move the needle significantly enough to be meaningful.  

And the idea that people won't commit to full price pre-orders after seeing so much product at discount is probably true -  but isn't particularly meaningful in the overall calculus of setting the price.    As has been discussed,  the clearance price issue was a result of overproduction due to optimistic overordering by retail partners -  and it affected ALL action figure output.    Hasbro isn't cutting the price on their figures even though a bunch of their more recent waves have been available at discount retailers for $5 or $10.      That's not how things work.

People POing extras to resell later doesn't really rock my boat. I read it as different than taking a figure out of someone's hands to resell it to them at a markup. Like KD said, they aren't creating an artificially inflated demand by reducing supply, if anything, they are creating more supply to be manufactured. And it's a risk, as it was in this case, when the extras aren't worth the price you paid. Sometimes you win, sometimes you loose. Not my bag, personally, but I don't throw shade at anyone that does. 

Not scalping I'd say. I'll call it schmalping. And the only winner in the S7 game of schmalping is Brian Flynn. 

But if anyone is up for gambling, who wants to put money on the 2003 TMNT line coming with double jointed elbows? I'm taking bets. 

Posted by: @hopethisworks

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But if anyone is up for gambling, who wants to put money on the 2003 TMNT line coming with double jointed elbows? I'm taking bets. 

 

If you're betting they DO, you'd lose. 😀 

They aren't going to change the articulation scheme this late in the game on the Ultimates line as a whole, let alone a subline of the TMNT line.

You may be right. I'm wondering if there is some truth to the Reddit post, though, and they're at least trying to up their game. 2003 TMNT would be a good starting point, that is, if they are making show accurate cartoon versions vs recreating the 2003 Playmates line. I'm not sure if they confirmed which direction they are going? 

I would hope they took this as an opportunity to shift course and redefine themselves. But I also don't expect them too. 

If we're assuming the Reddit post was made shortly after the supposed shakeup then I can't imagine Super7 would have the time to pivot much for an April reveal unless it's a purely digital reveal.  I know in earlier waves they'd release a (absolutely awful and cringey) video showing off the prototypes but maybe they don't do that anymore?  I haven't paid attention with these latest terrible waves.

Posted by: @hopethisworks

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I'll call it schmalping.

🤣 🤣 🤣 

Posted by: @mikeysee

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 I know in earlier waves they'd release a (absolutely awful and cringey) video showing off the prototypes but maybe they don't do that anymore?  I haven't paid attention with these latest terrible waves.

Their YouTube channel has been quiet since the Cobra Mothership failed late last year.

Which is odd since last month was “March of the Monsters” and you’d think that would be the sort of thing Brian would want to be in front of camera for; making cringe, showing off all the ReAction repaints… It *feels* like Newcastle put their boot down on Brian, downplaying *his* promotion for a brand only he’s passionate about, but if I hadn’t read that rumor I might not have even thought twice about it so what do I know!

Anyway! Scalping!

I don’t want to discuss the ethics of “buying an extra made to order item to sell or trade later” because it’s grey area and I don’t have an opinion either way… 

but I think the relationship between Super7 and “Scalpers” is fascinating and definitely lead to the bubble burst we’re seeing now!

So the aftermarket price for TMNT ULTIMATES! wave 1, MotU Classics, and NECA TMNT (remember at the time Bebop and Rocksteady were *just* coming out, it was still incredibly hard to get NECA TMNT at Target) definitely seemed to suggest it was a good “investment” to buy one or two extra ULTIMATES! if you were getting a set anyway because a late comer would definitely scoop them up off of you for even a small profit later.

So Super7 puts Wave 1 (and I think wave 2? Or was wave 2 still in active orders at the time?) back up and creates a false market.

Let’s say, using Brian math from the March First Fridays. 100 people actually wanted the product and pre-ordered, and e-tailers know for every pre-order two people wait to buy in stock, so that’s 300 legit orders.

but of those hundred, let’s say 30 want to buy extras to resell later, seeing the insane after market on Raph and early MotU Classics, so they buy three figures each. The 100 legit customers are now 160 orders, so Big Bad orders 480 figures, so we’ve now jumped from 200 figures for later comers to 380 figures for later comers. So if the 1 pre-order equals 2 in stock sales math holds, you got 180 left over.

The gets even worse for the first two TMNT waves since they’re REISSUES so some level of “one for me, one for later…” was already going on during the first run, so they have OVER 180 extra figures which is why you see Leos, Raphs, and Bebops for below $20 all the time.

and because of Super7’s slow production time and massive pre-order front loading this false inflation was going on for two-three years of producing to a demand using “scalper” pre-sale numbers not actual sales numbers, and some “scalpers” probably doing this across licenses in case “ULTIMATES!” as a whole and not just TMNT turn out to be worth something, it’s no wonder Big Bad had a lot of extra stock!

but wait! Big Bad offers no hassle cancellations! So once reviews start pooring in and it turns out these are bad, let’s be super kind and say 5% of regular customers cancel! (That 5% drop we’ll also give to instock orders!) That’s now 195 extra figures Big Bad has to get rid of! And let’s say 2% “scalpers” see the writing on the walls and cancel their multiple orders (with same 2% drop in actual orders) now Big Bad has 203 extra figures ordered against an artificial demand.

and keep in mind, I used 100 just to keep it simple and used completely made up statistics, so it could be less or more depending, but these factors definitely came into play. Even if they sold ten thousand units and have 20 extras, now wants $1000 in product they can’t move! Not retailers, let alone customers who had dreams of one wave paying for the next two

During the two years of artificial “scalper” sales numbers Super7 definitely expanded in ways they can’t sustain under “real” numbers and it’s going to be interesting to see what they do get back on track.

I found that tidbit about double-jointed elbows in the Reddit post to be the least interesting thing in there, if it's even accurate. Does anyone think Super7 can turn things around by adding another hinge to the elbows of their figures? I've always personally been find with their philosophy on the aesthetics of some joints, it's not my company and they can do as they please, my gripe where it concerns articulation is that the stuff they tend to put into the figures doesn't work like it should. The base turtles are relatively fine, but we have a bunch of figures from them that can't bend their elbows even 90 degrees, can't two-hand hold accessories meant to be held two-handed, or in the case of some have diaphragm cuts that literally do nothing. If you're making a Green Ranger then he needs to be able to "play" his flute - so make it happen. Especially if you're going to include such a render in your solicitation images.

And not to beat a dead horse on the subject of preorders (or may I don't mind beating said expired mammal), but they're not making many friends with how their schedule of deliveries has been. If I preorder multiple waves, I expect them to arrive in some sort of interval. Meanwhile, 3 waves of Simpsons Ultimates have hit in the span of a month with two of the waves arriving on the same day. They've done similar stuff with their other lines. I'd rather spread out the $500 toy purchases and that shouldn't be a huge ask. I suppose their counter would be that we should preorder through them and pay upfront, but I'm not keen on just handing over my money for product sight unseen either. Plus they don't do much to make it worth our while anyways and these lame attempts at accessory packs of late aren't as compelling as they seem to think. If they want people to start preordering more, give them what they really want which is a cheaper price.

Finally people airing the grievances I can 100% get behind.   I think the Doc's analysis is likely spot on,  although probably a little generous on the cancellation numbers.    But I definitely think the long lead time between pre-order and arrival led to a longer period of speculation boom to oversaturation bust than might otherwise have been normal.

I also totally agree with everything Misfit lays down there.    ARguing that articulation schemes should be dramatically different than they are isn't going to get anywhere -  these figures are designed the way they are designed aesthetically so adding joints and changing articulation styles probably isn't going to be highly prevalent.  That said,  the articulation they cut in should freaking work as it's supposed to.    Poorly cut joints that don't actually have the range of motion they are supposed to, or design elements that functionally eliminate joint movement that's designed in are bad and need to be avoided and then the figures should actually work as designed.   That's not asking too much that's just basic common sense.

And again with delivery schedule.    It is onerous and ridiculous to space out pre-orders three or four months apart and then have 'factory delays' or 'shipping issues' whereby three waves end up arriving simultaneously.    For the people who now order through retail partners to hold on to their money until product actually exists -  they expect to pay for waves on a spread out schedule and instead get hit with 3 waves at once to the tune of $700 in one drop.   That is unreasonable as well.     They need to figure out their production schedule and delivery so they can smoothly release product on a more or less predictable schedule and stop the hurry up and wait method.

@mikeysee My dear sweet dudeling... I shall do no tearing. Here's the thing; you're not wrong. And I don't think I said anything to suggest otherwise. Speculators can, at least in the short term (very important) generate hype and make a line more solvent.
My point of contention is that for this to be the case we're still required to treat each other like sources of income instead of like people. The INTENT, regardless of what it does or does not do for the industry, is solely and entirely to make a profit on the back of another member of your community.
One can argue that 'that's what Walmart does.' Of course. Absolutely.
But like.. as an ethical human being, does one want to be considered comparable to Walmart?

People can like it or not like it, or have all kinds of other opinions about it. But you'll never convince me that it's not, at its foundation, predacious. At best. And you'll definitely never convince me that the best path forward for us as a people is to treat each other with such bald contempt. Bad enough that we let most of the world's governments and corporations treat people like they exist only to provide financial gain - in my opinion, we don't need to treat each other that way.

In short; it's not really about whether it works or doesn't work, side effects of doing so, intelligence of doing so, etc etc. It's about the thought process that causes people do want to do it at all.

@misfit   Entirely agree that the end goal for a business like Super7 is to ROI for the investors (even if that's gross Capitalism and I personally hate it) and delivering, at a minimum, enough value to the consumer to keep them coming back. As has been established many times over the years, you don't grow and expand a toy business by catering to dickwads that want their toys to be investments. It's not just that it's silly - it's that the business model itself cannot work. You cripple your own business that way and then, ironically, the products you made lose all their value anyway because everyone stops caring about them.

To touch on what @misfit and @panthercult are discussing concerning articulation; yeah, I agree entirely. I've often complained about S7's articulation myself. But I think my actual complaint (and that of certain other people) often gets co-opted by a weird 'it must have 800 POA or it sucks' cult. I'd argue that the primary problem with S7's articulation model is two-fold - one of which has already been brought up.
Firstly.. too much of it just doesn't fucking work. I mean, you can create a single-jointed elbow that still bends 90 degrees. You can can make hinged wrists that hinge -the right way-. You can make hip joints that aren't eeeny-weeny-teeny ball-joints that look like they'd shatter in a stiff breeze. The Turtles could have the exact POA they have now, and be quite a bit more poseable than they are now. What they are now is just designed and QC'd in the laziest fucking way possible.

But I'll also add to that the idea that S7 could be doing slightly more to innovate that articulation without actually changing the look of the figures. Internal stuff and just minor sculpting changes to get not just better range out of what's there, but to be able to modify what's there to just be better choices. I mean, there's ZERO fucking reason why the Turtles have basically swivel necks. There's sooooo much room there to get a good ROM without changing how anything actually looks from the outside. So why not do it?
Again.. apathy and laziness. That's quite literally the only answer to the question of 'why not just design this a little better?'

That's what's really criminal about S7; the utter disinterest in being a great company despite the ability to be great being literally just past their fingertips. All they'd need to do is reach a tiny bit. But instead they slump over and say 'we do what we do and people either like it or they don't.'

I've said many times and will say again - if ANY other company was, at the same time as S7, putting out vintage toy inspired Turtles on a regular basis and promising a fairly deep character roster, it would have basically put S7 out of business. Their lazy, apathetic attitude toward making toys is only permissible because of the properties they hold, not because anyone necessarily thinks they're doing a good job on anything. And how sad is that.

The pre-order to delivery ratio is also a spot-on complaint. It baffles me that, yet again, this is another easy thing to spot if you're looking at why your company might be struggling. And, yet again, it seems to utterly elude Brian.

To back up KD’s point on the Super7 figures having the right amount of articulation, it just doesn’t work properly: On paper the articulation of the NECA Toon Turtles and the Super7 ULTIMATES! are basically identical. 

The Toon Turtles have an extra ball joint at the base of the neck, a double knee, and on later releases rocker ankles. But functionally they’re set up pretty much the same as the ULTIMATES!

No one is hounding Randy to add double elbows to the basic Turtles (no they’re hounding him for much stupider, crueler reasons) in fact fan demand got double elbows/kness taken off the movie April and Casey.

Heck, it took them A DECADE to make improvements to the articulation engineering but the Mythic Legions Valiant Knight is an absolute blast to pose, and it only has single ball elbow and knees and a ball waist. A figure with an incredibly “basic” articulation done ostensibly by Super7’s sculptors can get into incredibly dynamic poses because time was taken to make the few POA it has work!

So yeah, lack of articulation was never Super7’s problem, it’s always been lack of functionality due to lack of giving a shit.

I think my biggest problem in regards to ULTIMATES! lack of articulation is, surprise!, Brian’s shitty attitude about it!

”we did it for aesthetic reasons you see (talking down to us like we’re seven about how you cut into a sculpt to add articulation)”

which, to be absolutely fair, that’s the same talking point Todd McFarlane used to defend making statues and not hyper articulated figures two decades ago. That’s why Brian is falling on that argument over “well we’re a small company and every joint cost more money to add, so let’s say each joint cost $5 we’d have to raise the price $20 to give them double elbows and knees! (Ignoring there are figures with double elbows and knees for $20)” because it’s a line we as a community accepted twenty years ago and the least critical among us won’t question when we hear it again.

the difference being Big Todd is an absolute legend, a king, the GOAT, you can hate the game all you want but there’s no denying this man KNOWS action figures, we are where we are today because Toddy Mac dared to ask “well why not?!”

When he was describing how articulation ruined sculpts he was making beautiful $20 statues that looked EXACTLY like two dimensional artwork brought to life. Muscles folding and flexing exactly how they anatomically should not always standing “sandwich man” but some how bending their arms and twisting at the waist… He was also comparing them to Toy Biz Marvel Legends, which our warm fuzzy feelings about memories  of being in our early 20’s aside, look like absolute shit by today’s standards. So janky and weirdly proportioned.

Today in the year of our lord twenty freakin’ twenty four we’ve seen MANY examples of how articulation and sculpt can walk hand in hand.

You’re going to put a NECA 1990 Henson Turtle next to an ULTIMATES! Turtle and say “oh yeah, less articulation really makes this the better looking toy!”, functional articulation and sculpt can blend together incredibly well if you know what you’re doing.

And then there’s the fact… some ULTIMATES! Just do not look good.

Look, I know I’m doing nothing but shitting on Super7 in this and many post, but on paper I do like them, it’s why I want them to be better.

and not all their figures look bad, Clear Tygra might be the most gorgeous figure I own, I’m terrified to ever open him and risk him dinging in anyway he’s so crystal clear and amazing…

but Super7 cannot so real humans.

Brian cockily said in response to their Bruce Lee having single joints “well we’re not the only company making Bruce Lee figures” but then their Bruce Lee has an incredibly soft body sculpt and poor likeness compared Figuarts and DST, so it’s like… okay you gave us less articulation for “aesthetic reasons” why does the figure look like shit?

Too mean?!

I think the head sculpt on ULTIMATES! Picard is absolutely amazing, it’s painted like shit, but the sculpt itself is MIND BLOWING, up there with some of the best sculpts NECA, dare I even Hot Toys?! has ever done… but then he has a weird “toy style” body and these long ape arms that hang down to his knees that are tubes with no folds or muscles…

They won’t do double joints because they ruin the look of the sculpt, but then the sculpt is garbage to begin with… My cartoon David Xanatos figure should not have a more realistic detailed sculpt with actual sculpted clothing folds than my real human man Will Riker figure with is dead eyes and smooth featureless body.

anyway, I’m just rambling, point is:

-if you want to do limited articulation it still needs to actually function to serve a point 

-if your reason for limited articulation is “aesthetics” the figure should at least look good.

@doc-baghead Spot on from beginning to end.

So I'm hearing no bets on double jointed elbows coming to 2003 TMNT, any takers for double jointed knees? 

They'll have HALF joints, and you'll LOVE it!